A. Kubilius, R. Juknevičienė. Invest now in Ukraine’s victory, for the sake of Europe

If the war in Ukraine is Europe’s existential war, then we should fight it like one. As we mark two years since Russia launched a full-scale invasion against the state, the question is: are we doing enough to win it?  Doubtful, we need and must do more. Not only by increasing our assistance to Kyiv but also by preparing a plan for Ukraine’s victory.

While the Western’s world assistance has so far helped Ukraine not to lose the war, more is needed to help it win it. While the EU has shown unprecedented support and unity over the past two years, last year it spent only 0.1% of its total GDP on military assistance to Ukraine. Yet the combined economies of the EU and the US are 25 times larger in terms of GDP than the Russian economy. If we are so economically strong and we say we are supporting Ukraine to win the war, why is it not happening?

It appears that last year, according to official data, Russia spent more than €100 billion on military operations. The Ukrainian side, with all the assistance, spent only €80 billion. The numbers speak for themselves: despite our economic strength, we have not managed to mobilise our economies to the level needed for victory. One of the reasons is that our military support is on an individual, voluntary basis by Member States. We must therefore do more and act together.

Individual decisions by EU member states should be replaced by collective political will and a real EU plan for Ukraine’s victory, covering all its needs, not just ammunition. In addition, the plan should include a commitment by each member state to provide military assistance to Ukraine equivalent to 0.25% of GDP – that would be enough for Ukraine to prevail.

Critical times demand bold decisions and leave no room for hesitation. Two years ago, very few believed that Ukraine could prevail and stop the Russians from entering Kyiv. But it happened. Few also believed that EU and NATO membership was even possible for Ukraine. But the recent decisions to open EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and to envisage its NATO membership are proof to the contrary. The EPP Group has never shied away from defending Ukraine’s sovereign statehood and supporting its legitimate democratic and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Even before 2022, we pushed for not so obvious decisions like stopping Nord Stream, imposing an embargo on gas and oil deliveries from Russia, and imposing sanctions on weapons produced in Russia. We pushed for them successfully and made them European decisions. The recent adoption of the Ukraine Facility – a €50 billion assistance package – was the latest in our efforts. Although it is only a drop in the ocean of needs, especially in the context of the current US debates, we strongly believe that it will help Ukraine to become a stable democratic country on its way to the EU. 

10 years after the start of the Russian invasion and two years after its open military assault, we are at a turning point. The broad democratic consensus needs to be maintained when it comes to the military, financial and political support. It will be easier if we understand that Ukraine not only needs us, but we need Ukraine too. Both in the EU and NATO, to become stronger and to fill the gap in the EU’s security level. We need to understand that the buffer zones that have remained since 1992 triggered this war and that the new geopolitical landscape should have no room for similar spots.

We also need to understand that while Ukraine is fighting this very concrete conventional war on the battlefield, we are also fighting a hybrid war. It started before 2022, but very few realised what Russia was doing. We must do more to prevent Putin’s regime from using democratic means to fight our democracies.

As we enter the third year of an open war in Europe, very difficult times lie ahead. We must all understand that the time for complacency is over. The only way to achieve the long-term security of the entire European continent is to invest in Ukraine’s victory now. We’re all fighting an existential war, and we must do more if we want to preserve the freedom we’ve enjoyed so far.