Complicated Sino-Lithuanian relationship

As the Seimas elections approach, more parties, especially opposition parties, promise to change their foreign policy. The most significant change, in their view, is in relations with China. The opposition believes that seeing China as an enemy is enough, and it’s time to return to normal relations, Raigardas Musnickas states in lrytas.lt article.

It is difficult to say what that return would look like, especially as the Western world, while not openly confronting China, is trying to control its influence in trade. Another thing that is not clear is what is to be done with Taiwan’s representation, the name of which has led to an economic war with China. How much has the so-called values policy benefited? Will changing relations with China and Taiwan not undermine relations with the US?

It is not only the Taiwanese representation in Lithuania that has damaged relations

Giedrius Surplys, a Lithuanian Peasants and Greens Union Party member, reminds us that all parties have already agreed that relations with China must exist.

“Nobody is saying that they have to be good, nobody is saying that we have to kiss their bottom, as somebody has said, but they have to be. I want to point out, and perhaps not all of you know, that Lithuania also has formal diplomatic relations with North Korea.

“With China, formal relations exist, but there are no relations as such because we do not have an Ambassador in China, and China does not have an Ambassador with us,” said a member of the Seimas.

He adds that the Greens and Conservatives are also discussing the existence of relations. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is taking steps to normalise relations with China.

“Here we have a red rag or a red line, where China, Beijing, is saying that the only thing we are asking of you is to stay out of the one-China policy and change the name of the Taiwanese representation name, just like the rest of the world. It could be the Taipei Representative Office, the Taiwanese Economic Representative Office, or something like that,” Surplys said in the programme Open Conversation on Žinių Radijas.

On the other hand, the Taiwanese are saying that the red line could also be when the name is changed. He said the party believes Lithuania needs relations with the People’s Republic of China and ties with Taiwan.

There is a need, he said, to seek a common consensus and face-saving foreign policy with China.

Matas Maldeikis, a representative of the Conservatives, also spoke on the radio and said that he had noticed a change in politicians’ rhetoric about China and Taiwan over the last few years.

“I would like to start by saying that it didn’t start with Taiwan; it started with the port of Klaipėda,” believes Maldeikis. – China was planning to build an industrial park in Belarus, and they needed the port of Klaipėda to transport goods to the European Union (EU) under the One Belt, One Road initiative, producing and assembling many of them in Belarus.”

Since the project failed and did not reach Klaipėda, an essential spur for China was cut off. “Our relations with China de facto ended right then”, he stated. Then followed the 17+1 cooperation between China and Central and Eastern Europe, and only then did the scandal of the Taiwan representation break.

Therefore, he said, China broke off the relationship. However, with China’s change of power, it is said that China will seek solutions to the abovementioned disagreements.

China’s three-year trade war with Lithuania has been an attempt by one of the world’s largest economies to show what happens when you have conflict with another country. However, China cannot show anything and pressure another country, so news about Lithuania has disappeared from the Chinese media.

Mr Maldeikis believes that it is not only China-Lithuania relations but also the United States.

How can relations with China change?

Surplys thinks that the Conservatives’ mistake is that if Lithuania whistles on its knees, both China and the United States will kneel. “Unfortunately, the world is bigger and more complex.

When we see that the leaders of America, France, Germany, Spain, the European Union, and our very own Virginijus Sinkevičius went to China and talked about the green course, we see that they are in regular contact with China, with the top leaders,” he said.

The radio presenter noted that it is almost impossible to do without China, whether it is solar modules or agreements on reducing pollution.

Lithuania has also reneged on its promise not to change the name of the Taiwanese representation in Lithuania. Although everyone understands that China is playing the latter role in the war between Ukraine and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has included China as an important country in the upcoming negotiations. He understands, as the President thinks, that China can pressure Russia.

Can there be good relations between the Chinese and the Taiwanese? Maldeikis believes that China’s rhetoric towards Lithuania should change after the elections and that perhaps diplomatic relations will return. However, a radical change is not expected.

At the same time, Surplys reminds us of the agreement between the Lithuanian parties, which has not yet been signed and clearly states that Lithuania should act on EU policy but not be part of it regarding China.

Although late, a regulation has already been adopted to promote introducing green technologies in the EU, and money will be allocated for this.

The MEP points out that the West does not have a post-Cold War strategy, and it should. If China invested in Asia, Africa, and other European countries, Vladimir Putin did the same, which is why Europe fell behind.

The bilateral agreement between the EU and China, which took care of intellectual property protection, has now broken down. The Bank of Lithuania and economists who have calculated the cost of completely breaking off relations with China – between a few hundred million and a billion euros.

We are only counting the terminated contracts, but we are not counting the fact that the Lithuanian laser industry had already made a strong push, the Lithuanian IT industry had already found avenues for joint projects in China, and the same goes for agriculture,” explains Surplys.

However, Lithuania will take time to go without Chinese goods. Now, the EU is on the right track, he says.