“No need to mince words”: an assessment of what Trump’s victory means for Lithuania

“We can shout very loudly, but it won’t change the position of the American people,” says Professor Tomas Janeliūnas, as the winner of the United States of America’s (USA) presidential election, which will almost certainly be Donald Trump, emerges, writes A. Liubartaitė and I. Naureckaitė in lrytas.lt.

According to him, the news from the US is quite bad for Ukraine and Lithuania, but such results were to be expected in principle.

Political analyst Marius Laurinavičius does not dramatise the situation. In his opinion, Trump’s victory will cause more trouble for Americans, while it may benefit Europe, for example.

What are the pain points that Trump’s election has exposed in US society, and what can we expect from the American verdict? Agnė Liubertaitė and Indrė Naureckaitė present the question in lrytas.lt interview.

Janeliūnas: no more mincing words

Tomas Janeliūnas, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, pointed out that the polls conducted before the election did not show such a clear Trump lead. Still, his success should not be too surprising overall.

“Various forecasting models, which included more variables, were already showing a specific Trump advantage a few weeks before the election, so I don’t find it surprising.

The rather clear dominance may surprise some, especially in swing states, so there will be many questions about why the polls were inaccurate, where the potential of Trump’s supporters lies, and why polls do not capture it.

But we have a result that is probably not unexpected, even for the Americans themselves,” explained Janeliūnas, who is currently doing a research fellowship in the US, speaking to Lrytas.

According to the professor, Trump‘s sharp retreat signals a change in the mood of US society.

“It shows a great dissatisfaction with the inertia that existed during the Biden administration and the fact that Ms Harris failed to break away from this current administration as a new candidate. She was not seen as a new candidate but as simply a Biden backup incapable of reversing current trends.

Trump’s victory shows that the American people want change, even if it is radical, perhaps unpredictable, and sometimes even shocking. On the economy and migration, these are the changes that Americans seem to have wanted the most,” the political scientist reflected.

According to Janeliūnas, Trump’s victory in the US elections is a very bad sign, first of all for Ukraine, but also for Lithuania.

“It seems that Mr Zelensky has not been able to convince Mr Trump and his team in recent meetings that every effort should be made to support Ukraine and stop Russia.

Trump’s frequent statements on Ukraine, however infrequent, have been that Mr Zelensky is just constantly asking for money and that, somehow, we need to stop that support for Ukraine.

The mood on the Republican side is similar, so it will be difficult for the Ukrainians to hold the front without more American help.

So the news is quite bad at this point, and Mr Trump will likely pressurise Mr Zelensky to accept some negotiating terms that are not favourable to Ukraine and thus actually stop the war on terms that are favourable to Russia. This would also mean a greater threat to us,” the professor stated.

According to Janeliūnas, if Russia wins in Ukraine, even if it takes control of only part of the state instead of the whole country, this would mean that Russia will be able to declare a political victory to demonstrate that it is strong and that it has been able to defeat not only Ukraine but also the “collective West”.

“And this will mean one thing: we must prepare for war with Russia. And there is no need to mince words here. We will inevitably face Russia in one way or another in such a case, and this will mean the same thing we have been saying for the last years – if Russia wins in Ukraine, it will not stop there”, the expert explained.

Although Lithuania has been a vocal advocate of support for Ukraine on the international stage to this day, according to Janeliūnas, no matter what we say, our voice is still relatively weak and cannot change global trends.

“We can shout very loudly, but it will not change the American position. The best we can do in this case is to prepare ourselves first and talk to the Europeans, who need to be convinced that Europe’s security will increasingly depend on how much the Europeans invest in their own security.

These are our fundamental challenges, and we should be realistic about our ability to significantly change American policy.

We can simply accept this and strive to ensure that we are not forgotten, so that Donald Trump and his administration see us as reliable allies—we have all the advantages and strengths needed for this. We devote a lot of forces to our defence, we buy a lot of weapons from the Americans, and we have a similar attitude towards China—all of this will have to be reminded, but it will not change Trump’s position in any way,” Janeliūnas explained.

Laurinavičius: there are benefits, there are risks

Political analyst Marius Laurinavičius took a different view, saying that he was not one of those who thought that Trump’s victory would be a tragedy for Ukraine or Lithuania. After Trump became US Pres, the critical difference is that Lithuania is a member of NATO, and Ukraine is not.

“I have always believed, and continue to believe, that Trump’s presidency poses a greater threat to the US itself – to American democracy, stability, to the internal situation – than to the international situation,” the commentator stressed.

Laurinavičius is convinced that Trump’s presidency can benefit the geopolitical situation in some respects, although it also has detrimental aspects.

“One beneficial side is that Europe needs a kick in the butt. Europe will be forced to take more care of its defence, something it has been very reluctant to do. This is quite obvious. But some things are hazardous – also for Lithuania. The likelihood of conflict between Europe and the US is much higher under a Trump presidency – not just over defence funding.

Trade wars of all kinds are very likely, and in general, the psychological relationship between the leaders, which is also essential, will be very different. This division between America and Europe is dangerous, especially in this geopolitical situation,” the analyst said.

In any case, one of the biggest threats faced by Trump, identified by some analysts, is that under Trump, the US may leave NATO, which is not what Laurinavičius believes.

“America has had and will continue to have a system of checks and balances in place – the President cannot do it himself; Congress is there. In Congress, of course, Trump’s Republican supporters will have a majority in both chambers. But then again, the Republicans, especially on issues such as NATO, will certainly not be completely obedient to Trump, even if Trump wanted to do something like this”, the analyst believes.

Laurinavičius recalled that Trump made similar threats during his first term in office, but they did not become reality.

“However unhappy he may be that Europe is not paying enough attention to defence or that he thinks Europe is living at the expense of the US, America needs allies as much as anybody, especially in the face of China’s challenges. He stressed that if Trump does not fully understand this, there is the whole state machine, the advisers, the military”.