Everyone still has wings before the battle

The Social Democrats or the Labour Party, perhaps even both together – such is the cruelly ironic choice, whom to court to form a government, that could await the Conservatives after this autumn’s Seimas 2020 elections, Vytautas Bruveris writes in Lrytas.lt

After all, namely these two powers, constantly declared even subversive groups by the right-wingers, could be the only partners with which they will be able to form a ruling coalition. This puzzle is just one in the post-electoral picture, which politicians in both Seimas and outside it are already painting with great fervour.

Furthermore, for a time now, it is not all just talk. The leaders and chieftains of the main parties are establishing informal negotiations – who with whom and how who could look at one or another.

It’s natural, the likely election victors’ line-up is seemingly clear. Not just public opinion polls help guess it, but also the entire political climate. It’s the Conservatives, Social Democrats, “Farmers” and “Labour”. The Liberal Movement could find itself on the brink of entering this quartet as well, however, it will likely not be the main player.

The Conservatives are likely to take first place and the Social Democrats should be breathing down their necks. Third and fourth places could be shared by the “Farmers” and “Labour”.That said, it is uncertain how the “Farmers” will be impacted by the government-related scandal burden, which could still rise.

It is also uncertain, what influence on the elections will be exerted by powers, which will present themselves and voters will evaluate as “completely new”, also radically non-partisan or anti-partisan groups.

Among them is a potential “presidential party”, which the Presidential Palace seems to still be seeking to form.

Nevertheless, it is more or less clear that the main struggle overpower will occur between the two centres of power and gravity – the Conservatives and the so-called centre-left, which will contain the remaining four members of the quartet.

Will the Conservatives win to the extent that no government can form without them? Highly doubtful. It is doubtful even if the Conservatives were to manage to form a joint bloc with the tattered Liberals.

What is far more likely is that the Social Democrats, “Farmers” and “Labour”, as well as all the others together, will win more. Thus, what is most important is who will play first fiddle in this band and will dictate coalition conditions.

It seems most likely that the best chances are held by the Social Democrats, afterwards the Labour Party.

However, the “Farmers” to do not lose hope, especially if any of their potential minor appendages manage to crawl over the unreduced 5% threshold.

In either case, there is already a preparatory round of wooing being performed by the Conservatives and “Farmers” and the objects of this wooing are the Social Democrats and “Labour”.Prime Minister S. Skvernelis also actively entered this campaign and is already seeking at least a preliminary deal with primarily the Labour Party. If the “Farmers”, their smaller companions and also “Labour” form something akin to a joint bloc, it would have fairly solid negotiation positions with the Social Democrats even if they were to win the elections.

What prospects S. Skvernelis sees for himself, most likely he himself is uncertain, however, in either case, this means that he has decided to run in the elections and do so under the “Farmer” flag.

All his public talks about how such a likelihood is very low are just political cunning.

The Conservatives seek to keep up, also aiming for “Labour” and the Social Democrats. In both cases, the right wing’s arguments to their own, who are up in arms against it, is that these two parties have greatly changed and renewed, while furthermore, “Labour” patriarch V. Uspaskich will likely remain in Brussels.

In other words, whoever wins this Year of the Rat race, we can already make guesses that in the new term awaits a no less colourful government and a no less miserable political circus than during this term.