On 29 December, the Finnish publication Iltalehti published information from NATO sources on the scenario of an attack on Finland, Norway and the Baltic States rehearsed by Russian forces during one of the exercises, Indrė Naureckaitė states in Lrytas.lt.
The Minister of National Defence Dovilė Šakalienė stressed to the news portal Lrytas that this is just another Finnish defence report assessing the country’s medium-term defence needs and that there is currently no threat of increased Russian aggression against NATO countries.
For his part, Giedrimas Jeglinskas, Chairman of the Seimas Committee on National Security and Defence (NSGK), reiterated that this is only one possible scenario of a Russian attack while explaining what interests Russia could have in the Arctic.
Šakalienė: this is a regular report
Minister of National Defence Šakalienė told news portal Lrytas that the information in the Finnish publication is not new—it is another report on the country’s defence, which assesses threats and capabilities.
The Minister also stressed that the Finnish government’s own report does not mention that the likelihood of Russian aggression has increased, and Lithuania does not have any new data on the matter.
“The report mentioned in the newspaper is the third defence report of its kind – it is a regular, routine report, it examines the needs for defence development in the medium term, it assesses Finland’s defence capabilities in the national context, as well as the collective defence capabilities in the context of the Alliance,” the Minister said.
Šakalienė stressed that this report considers changes in the geopolitical situation but is essentially a continuation of the previous Government’s defence report.
According to the Minister, the scenarios of Russian military exercises are always directed against Western countries, in the same way that in military exercises organised by NATO or Lithuania, it is clearly understood from which side aggression is likely.
“Even from the Finnish side, it was said very specifically that there are no new, immediate threats.
We can see that the situation is complicated—the map of unconventional threats, particularly hybrid attacks, shows this.
However, the quick and effective reaction of the Finns, for example, in the Christmas incident, shows that we are moving in the right direction – that we will react more and more toughly, that we will look for new ways of cooperation, how the Nordic-Baltic countries can work together in joint action, how they can prepare more effectively. Perhaps some new opportunities for collaboration could also be considered,” said Ms Šakalienė.
The Minister noted that the possible directions of a Russian attack mentioned in the publication are a mix of fragments: some are taken from Russian exercise scenarios, others are just interpretations.
“There is a wide variety of exercise scenarios; some are more public, and others are more classified. There is not much point in commenting on such a cocktail. We know where Russia is geographically and where Belarus is geographically, so there are different scenarios, both when it comes to national and collective defence, and we take into account the different possibilities,” the Minister said.
Chairman of the NSGK: this is one of the possible scenarios
The Chairman of the Seimas Committee on National Security and Defence (NSGK), Jeglinskas, also stressed that the information did not reveal any significant surprises – Russia does have plans for a possible attack on NATO countries, and the scenario that appeared in the Finnish media is only one of the possible ones.
“When we talk about Russia’s intentions, about what it can or would like to do against NATO countries, whether it is Lithuania or Scandinavia, we should not doubt that Russia has plans, and I have no doubt that these plans are constantly being modified,” Jeglinskas told the news portal Lrytas.
The Chairman of the NSGK also recalled that in 2017, the Zapad exercise clearly showed that the scenarios developed by Russia simulated aggression against NATO countries.
“We should not be so sceptical about such information but simply see the bigger picture. The information about a possible Russian attack on the Nordic countries is also not new – the Northerners have been watching this for decades because there are strategic reasons why Russia would want to have a buffer zone there”, he said.
Jeglinskas said that dominance in the Arctic would allow access to important resources and, as the climate changes, new transport routes would open up.
“This is a strategic location that we don’t discuss much in Lithuania. However, the NATO countries, the Arctic Council in Europe, Canada, and the US have basically ignored this part of the Arctic, have not invested in military capabilities for many years, and lack icebreakers and submarines. There are many shortcomings there.
It is not illogical that Russia should want to create a buffer zone in the north of Europe, where Scandinavia is. But is that their main axis, or is that just one scenario? “Because there are other scenarios—the same Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, and the Caucasus—it is hard to say where Russia’s priority would be,” the Chairman of the NSGK assessed.
Jeglinskas pointed out that the Finnish publication describes this particular scenario of a Russian attack, emphasising what Finland must consider.
However, in general, politicians and intelligence officials from other foreign countries are also openly talking about the fact that Ukraine is only the beginning for Russia.
“We have to understand that the question is not just whether Russia will do something to us – it is when. And that should determine our next steps.
Yes, Russia is now bogged down in Ukraine, and that is a fact, and NATO continues to strengthen. We have NATO troops in all the Baltic countries and all around the NATO perimeter, and we continue to strengthen our defence. But it is absolutely necessary to be focused, to show determination and will,” he stressed.
The Finnish publication mentions that a Russian attack could happen “in the coming years”. In Jeglinskas’ view, this is an escape from the issue.
The politician stressed that any invasion never starts with the invasion itself. First, there is a rather long disinformation campaign, a years-long development of the Russian narrative of how Russia has to take over certain areas.
Then, there are hybrid cyber-attacks aimed at undermining confidence in state institutions. Air strikes also precede the invasion, and only then does the actual ground invasion begin.
Russia itself, according to the Chairman of the NSGK, is losing 1,500 people every day; mobilisation is not going well because Russia has already had to use North Korean troops, and the Russian economy is far from prosperous.
“Ukraine is Putin’s main objective, and so should be ours – in addition to strengthening our defence capabilities, we need to help Ukraine get the edge it needs to come to the negotiating table with a stronger position than it has now”, said Mr Jeglinskas.
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