On the Nauja Diena program on Lietuvos Rytas, it was stated that while Mindaugas Sinkevičius, the chairman of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP), elected in early May, promises to make a final decision within the next month on further work in a coalition with Remigijus Žemaitaitis-led Nemuno Aušra, President Gitanas Nausėda believes that the current confusion should not last forever, lrytas.lt reported.
Matas Baltrukevičius, an associate analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis, shared his insights on what to expect from the coalition and the Social Democratic Party in general during an appearance on the Lietuvos Rytas television program Nauja Diena.
Baltrukevičius highlighted the lifting of former Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas’s legal immunity as one of the week’s most significant events. New polls showed a decline in confidence in Inga Ruginienė, with about 80% of people viewing the government’s performance negatively.
“But the main, big question continues to resemble a soap opera with no resolution—the future of the coalition. Last week’s Social Democratic Party convention brought nothing new, even though Mindaugas Sinkevičius had at one point promised that he would at least state his personal position, which would have been a serious step,” the political scientist noted. “The Social Democrats are simply stalling. As Sinkevičius said in an interview, there are no decisions because it is difficult to decide.”
Ruginienė’s rhetoric suggests that coalition matters are not the most important thing. “To some extent, one can agree that there may be more sensitive issues,” said Baltrukevičius. “Fuel prices and similar matters. But this is not unimportant, because it primarily leads to instability.
You can’t get inside every minister’s head, but I think that the ministers of Nemuno Aušra are being affected a little by this backdrop of uncertainty. With every day that passes without a decision, the likelihood that nothing will happen increases. That backdrop does not contribute to overall stability.
Ever since the last Seimas elections, both under Paluckas’ and Ruginienė’s governments, there has been a severe lack of stability. And here is yet another obstacle preventing stable work.”
The EU presidency is approaching
According to the political scientist, a decision must ultimately be made, and one possible solution is a new coalition format. “Although I would say that it is more likely that nothing will happen, the probability of change is still the highest it has ever been,” he emphasised.
The Social Democrats cannot back down from the issue of the Kapčiamiestis military training ground. Pressure from the president is also mounting.
“The third factor, which we discuss surprisingly little in Lithuania, is the upcoming EU presidency.
In this context, with Nemuno Aušra in the coalition and the lingering effect of Remigijus Žemaitaitis’s unpredictability—even if nothing scandalous happens during those six months—Lithuania’s domestic politics will be under a much greater magnifying glass in Europe than usual,” said Baltrukevičius. “At least at the beginning of the presidency, there will certainly be more reports about Lithuania—what kind of country it is, what its policies are, and who is in the ruling coalition. And the Social Democrats understand that international context.”
The likelihood that a split could occur is the highest since the start of the term, but that doesn’t mean it will definitely happen. However, we can’t rule out such a scenario either. Circumstances are unfolding in a way that makes a split possible, though it’s more likely that the situation will remain as it is.”
It’s hard to regain approval ratings
Would a split between the Social Democrats and Nemuno Aušra help them boost their falling approval ratings? “There’s no clear-cut answer,” Baltrukevičius mused. “Regaining public trust in those in power is always a difficult task. After all, governments are generally “to blame” for everything that happens.
Oil prices, over which Lithuania has very limited influence, also contribute to this generally poor result. We ourselves cannot control the international events that most determine this situation.
Generally speaking, those in power in Lithuania rarely manage to maintain their popularity. But we’ve usually seen such rock-bottom levels only when terms are nearing their very end. I think it’s very difficult to reverse that trend.
Perhaps some minor change could occur—it wouldn’t be too surprising if, by the end of the year, 70 per cent of the population were to express distrust in the government. That would be somewhat better than the current situation, but is that really a success?
Polls are polls, but if parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, the Social Democrats would likely still come in second and perform better than the Liberal Movement, the Peasants’ Party, or Nemuno Aušra. But the Social Democrats wouldn’t be fighting for victory right now,” the political scientist is convinced.
Is Ruginienė a “spent card”?
In his view, the current situation is, in a sense, having a “protective” effect on Ruginienė. “The Social Democrats are beginning to view Ruginienė as a politically ‘spent card’ whose dream political scenario was the post of prime minister.”
Her career could follow a path similar to Butkevičius’s; she could remain a member of the Seimas, perhaps even quite influential, but she would no longer be considered a candidate for the most important political posts. “That alone would be a dream scenario,” said Baltrukevičius.
If the Social Democrats were to change the prime minister again during this term, it would likely have no significant impact, he believes. “Another person would simply fade into the political background. It would be more beneficial for the Social Democrats to maintain the status quo in this case.
Sinkevičius, by dropping hints that he might become more involved in national politics, creates a bit of intrigue, but that involvement could take a different form,” Baltrukevičius mused.
Lack of leadership from the chairman
There could be more leadership from Social Democratic Party Chairman Sinkevičius. “Sinkevičius himself would sometimes try to hide behind his status as interim chairman, especially when uncomfortable questions about the coalition were raised. Although, in essence, even before the allegations against Saulius Skvernelis were made, some Social Democrats said that if Sinkevičius came to the party council with a clear stance that the coalition needed to be changed, the party would likely follow him.
Sometimes one gets the impression that Sinkevičius could indeed be more decisive. It seems that something is holding him back from making stronger decisions. After the party convention, the group of deputies changed somewhat—Nerijus Cesiulis and Rasa Budbergytė, who are more critical of the current coalition, are no longer part of it. Some Social Democrats don’t like this; it seems that Sinkevičius tends to surround himself with loyalists, more convenient people.
On the other hand, it seems that Sinkevičius is trying to navigate the future of the coalition, given the different factions within the party; he is trying not to offend either side so that a balance is maintained and the atmosphere within the party remains as positive as possible.
But sometimes this approach leads to a lack of decisiveness that one would not expect from the leader of the party with the largest number of members in parliament,” said Baltrukevičius.
Despite the big names, the political scientist says he does not believe in a split in the Social Democratic Party. “When a split occurred previously, the splinter group didn’t achieve anything significant. And now the circumstances are such that the faction that doesn’t like how things are going can wait it out.
There will be parliamentary elections, and the Social Democrats will likely, as is usually the case with all ruling parties in Lithuania, suffer at least a relative defeat, and then the faction that has consistently criticised the coalition will appear very wise, and their influence will naturally grow,” the political scientist predicted.
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