ELECTIONS. 2ND round predictions – which leaders have the most chances

Though the number of Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrat (TS-LKD) and Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union (LVŽS) candidates entering the second round of elections is roughly equal, some specialists believe there is little to be happy about for the Conservatives, DELFI reported.

Preliminary data suggests that 41 Conservative and 42 “Peasants” will enter the second round of elections. While this result is close to equal, the Conservatives may not find it successful because the Social Democrat or Labour voters, whose candidates were left third or fourth in their districts, will likely not support Conservatives, meaning that a meaningful reserve may not materialise.

Lack of reserves for Conservatives?

Journalist Indrė Makaraitytė holds the opinion that the Conservatives have little room to expand, while the leftist voters left stranded without their own candidates are unlikely to support them.

“The voters of the Labour Party and Order and Justice Party are unlikely to vote for a TS-LKD candidate. Nevertheless it is a little different in the regions, people do not always vote for parties, often parties invite well known locals into their ranks and sometimes people vote for a more famous local candidate,” I. Makaraitytė told Delfi.

The journalist does not believe the Conservatives’ chances are high, stating that “I looked through the single-mandate districts very critically, looking at reserves from one side and the other. There are a few districts where Liberal Movement candidates are up against Conservatives, thus given the lack of reserves for the Homeland Union, one of them will win. Most often these are regions where the mayor is a Liberal; it is unlikely the TS-LKD will manage to tap into the leftist electorate to win against a Liberal.

Elsewhere it is against the “Peasants”. They are currently riding a wave of popularity and I believe that the “Peasants” are currently in control of this wave and it is hardly possible for the Conservatives to win in such districts. After all they have nowhere to obtain reserves since Conservative voters are usually those who definitely come to vote and thus the number is limited.”

According to I. Makaraitytė, the Conservatives can take an extra 10 mandates in the single-mandate districts, while the LVŽS’ chances are better “I counted that the “Peasants” could earn at least 28 extra mandates. Of course not everywhere, there are some very strong Social Democrat candidates up against them, ones who have long been winning elections in their districts.

Conservative districts exist as well. There are more districts where it is unclear, but Conservatives have typically reached their limits and I wouldn’t say they have any opportunities to grow, thus I wouldn’t say their chances are great in the single-mandate districts.”

Other electorates may not even show up

Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science analyst Mažvydas Jastramskis believes that the voters of parties that failed to perform may simply not show up.

“In the second round this Social Democrat support can have some impact, but I doubt it will be a conclusive matter. Second round activity is typically far lower and voters from parties whose candidates lost show up in smaller numbers.

It isn’t that I think activity will be smaller, it just always is smaller and those who voted for a Social Democrat who failed to enter the second round could simply not show up,” M. Jastramskis told Delfi.

According to the analyst both parties have advantages in the second round. “I wouldn’t start making predictions in one direction or the other; when activity is low, Conservatives benefit. On the other hand the “Peasants” are leading as the second choice party,” he noted.