Grybauskaitė effect? Among the candidates for Prime Minister, there is also an option that has not yet been named out loud

With the parliamentary elections just a month away, party leaders are already working out, in public and behind closed doors, the scenarios for the foundations of the future governing coalition and who will lead the Government for the next four years, Aurimas Perednis stated said in the programme Dienos Klausimas (Question of the Day) on Žinių Radijas. lrytas.lt wrote.

Some candidates are rushing to replace Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, while others, such as the leader of the Social Democrats, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, are only responding through gritted teeth that they would take on this responsibility.

Professor Ainė Ramonaitė, a political scientist at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), pointed out that, depending on the outcome of the elections, we could be facing a less likely scenario of a Dalia Grybauskaitė effect.

What else can we expect from this autumn session of the Seimas? Who could take the Prime Minister’s seat? What is the future for Gabrielius Landsbergis, the conservative leader who has given up his dream of becoming a European Commissioner?

What can you expect from the new season?

This week marks the start of the last season of the Seimas – the autumn session. Undoubtedly, the last session of the Seimas, one month before the elections, will be full of heated speeches rather than work.

Professor Lauras Bielinis, a political scientist at Vytautas Magnus University (VDU), hopes that the most necessary work will be carried out constructively.

“I hope that the Seimas will realise its last ambitions, the adoption of various laws, in an orderly manner, without any misunderstandings. The process cannot be interrupted. I hope everything will go smoothly,” Bielinis said in the programme Question of the Day on Žinių Radijas.

However, the professor agrees that political rhetoric and fisticuffs will not be avoided.

“Elections always provoke such things because politicians instinctively understand that the voter’s first reaction is to all sorts of emotional phenomena – fears, joys, scares, dangers, naming enemies one way or another. All these emotional calls are inevitable and will only increase”, – Bielinis is convinced.

“Arguments are complicated to understand, so emotion is closer to us not because it is vivid, but because it is easier to understand,” he added.

For her part, Professor Ramonaitė, a political scientist at VU TSPMI, does not expect anything from this Seimas session.

“I don’t expect anything concrete. It seems to me that this is already pre-election stuff. As the folk wisdom says, what you don’t wear, you don’t polish. If one tries to deal with serious issues at the end of the term of office, it seems a bit frivolous,” Ramonaitė commented on Žinių Radijas.

She regretted that recently, Lithuania no longer breeds mature politicians, young people come without enthusiasm to make a difference, party programmes are abstract, and for the first few years, new parliamentarians have yet to learn what they should do in the Seimas.

According to the political scientist, after October, we will probably see a new ruling majority because the principle of the political pendulum always works in Lithuania.

“We have a pattern that two terms of left-wing Government usually follow one term of right-wing Government. Or rather, it’s even more likely that there is a right-wing Government, then a left-wing Government and then some new parties. It seems that this time it will be the same”, Ramonaitė said.

However, as she pointed out, it is more difficult to make predictions now because, in general, the economic situation in Lithuania is not bad compared to other countries, and generations of voters are changing.

What’s next?

The future Prime Minister of Lithuania will depend on the new governing coalition. The parties have openly announced their prime ministerial candidates in the event of a victory.

“I hope there are still open spaces even for some new people whose names do not appear now. What do we have now? Everybody is cornering the Social Democrats, who don’t have that Prime Minister. They are saying something because what more can they do?

But if a coalition of more parties and a more equal coalition were to be formed, another person whose name was not yet to be mentioned could come forward. There would be a novelty effect and an opportunity for the other parties to concede, to unite”, Ramonaitė said.

She identified Virginijus Sinkevičius, a former EU Commissioner who is now an MEP and candidate for the Seimas together with Sauliaus Skvernelis’ Democrats, as a surprise factor. He could breathe fresh air, but his partisanship will get in the way.

“Of course, he is now tied to a particular party, but he is still a bit of an outsider. There could be a Grybauskaitė effect. Having been out of the meatgrinder of national politics, a new, young face, that could work”, said Ramonaitė.

In fact, the Democrats have already presented their future Government. Skvernelis has been named Prime Minister, while Sinkevičius could take the post of Foreign Minister.

Another phenomenon in these elections is Remigijus Žemaitaitis. According to the professor, the ruling party has done itself a disservice by trying to throw him out of the Seimas, as he can now argue that he is “unsystematic”.

“Although he has been in politics for a long time, he has never been as visible as he is now. On the other hand, I wouldn’t say this is a new phenomenon because it nicely replicates the phenomena of the Labour Party and the Order and Justice party. It is not for nothing that he has several former Labour members in his party, and he is a former member of Order and Justice,” she said.

Meanwhile, according to the expert, Blinkevičiūtė, who is constantly changing her mind about becoming Prime Minister, has somehow managed to maintain the image of a defender of pensioners over the years, which she does not want to destroy by taking a high post.

“The most important thing is that everyone remembers that one thing, strange as it may seem. There is no other great merit. (…) I understand her reluctance to go for some post because she is probably aware that the bubble would soon collapse. Once real action starts, there would be enemies, which she probably does not want to make at all”, said Ramonaitė.

And what is in store for Landsbergis, who will be left without a commissioner’s seat? He has already announced that he intends to stay in domestic politics. Bielinis believes that everything is still ahead of the Conservative leader.

“I think that he will remain one of the leaders of the Conservative Party, and beyond that, you see, he is very young, so everything can still happen. (…) We should not make any dramatic generalisations that everything is over and nothing more will happen to him. He has a long time to go in his political life.

Mr Bielinis concluded, ” Many things will happen in his life—good and bad—and I think he will achieve a lot.