Parties’ ratings and ELECTIONS results: now and then, what to expect?

Preliminary voting for the first round of the 2016 Seimas election started on Wednesday, with the main event to start on Sunday. 14 parties and coalitions are competing for 141 mandates in the Seimas with a total of 1400 candidates. Twelve parties are participating independently while four other parties have joined to form two coalitions.

Poll data from the past few months has been favourable for three parties: the Social Democrats (LSDP), the “Peasants” (LVŽS) and the Conservatives (TS-LKD). Sociologists believe that Labour, Order and Justice and the Liberals are likely to pass the 5% vote barrier, with Kristupas Krivickas and Naglis Puteikis’ coalition being likely to pass the 7% hurdle set for coalitions. Despite unfavourable polling, the Polish Electoral Action in Lithuania – Christian Families’ Union (LLRA-KŠS) could break through the 5% barrier as well given its capacity in mobilising minority voters.
How do polling and election results typically compare?

BNS presents data from pre-election polls in the 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections, as well as the results of the 2008 and 2012 elections

Elections 2008

Public opinion survey ordered by Lietuvos Rytas from Vilmorus in September 2008:

1. TS-LKD – 12.4%, 2. Order and Justice – 11.4%, 3. Labour Party + youth coalition – 8.7%, 4. LSDP – 7.2%, 5. National Resurrection Party – 7% of respondents. Remaining parties were predicted to be unable to pass the 5% hurdle: Peasant Nationalists – 4.8%, New Union – 4.3%, Liberal and Centre Union – 3.1%, Liberal Movement – 2.3%.

2008 Seimas election first round results in the multi-mandate electoral district:

1. TS-LKD – 19.7%, 2. National Resurrection Party – 15%, 3. Order and Justice – 12.7%, 4. LSDP – 11.7%, 5. Labour Party + youth coalition – 8.9%, 6. Liberal Movement – 5.7%, 7. Liberal and Centre Union – 5.3%.

Final results after the second round, total mandate count

1. TS-LKD – 45 mandates, 2. LSDP – 25 mandates, 3. National Resurrection Party – 16 mandates, 4. Order and Justice – 15 mandates, 5. Labour party + youth coalition – 10 mandates, 6. Liberal Movement – 11 mandates, 7. Liberal and Centre Union – 8 mandates, 8. LLRA – 3 mandates, 9. Peasant nationalist union – 3 mandates, 10. New Union – 1 mandate. Also 4 independent candidates entered Seimas.

Elections 2012

Public opinion survey ordered by Lietuvos Rytas from Vilmorus in September 2012:

1. LSDP – 23.4%, 2. Labour Party – 21.1%, 3. Order and Justice – 13.9%, 4. TS-LKD – 12.3%, 5. Way of Courage – 6.5%, 6. Liberal Movement – 5.3%.

Public opinion survey ordered by the delfi.lt portal from Spinter Research in September 2012:

1. LSDP – 16.3%, 2. Labour Party – 14.5%, 3. Order and Justice – 9.5%, 4. TS-LKD – 7.6%, 5. Liberal Movement – 4.8%, 6. A. Zuokas’ Union “Yes” – 3.7%, 7. Way of Courage – 3.7%, 8. Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union – 2.3%, 9. Liberal and Centre Union – 2.2%, 10. LLRA – 1.9%

2012 Seimas election first round results in the multi-mandate electoral district:

1. Labour Party – 19.8%, 2. LSDP – 18.4%, 3. TS-LKD – 15%, 4. Liberal Movement – 8.6%, 5. Way of Courage – 8%, 6. Order and Justice – 7.3%, 7. LLRA – 5.8%.

Final results after the second round, total mandate count

1. LSDP – 38 mandates, 2. TS-LKD – 33 mandates, 3. Labour Party – 29 mandates, 4. Order and Justice – 11 mandates, 5. Liberal Movement – 10 mandates, 6. LLRA – 8 mandates, 7. Way of Courage – 7 mandates, 8. LVŽS – 1 mandate. Also 3 independent candidates enter Seimas.
Elections 2016

Public opinion survey ordered by Lietuvos Rytas from Vilmorus in September 2016:

1. LSDP – 16%, 2. LVŽS – 12.6%, 3. TS-LKD – 9.2%, 4. Labour Party – 5.1%, 5. Order and Justice – 4.8%, 6. Anti-Corruption Coalition of Naglis Puteikis and Kristupas Krivickas – 4.7%, 7. Liberal Movement – 2.7%, 8. LLRA-KŠS – 2%.

Public opinion survey ordered by the delfi.lt portal from Spinter Research in September 2016:

1. LSDP – 15.6%, 2. LVŽS – 14%, 3. TS-LKD – 13.7%, 4. Labour Party – 5.2%, 5. Liberal Movement – 5%, 6. Order and Justice – 4.9%, 7. Anti-Corruption Coalition of Naglis Puteikis and Kristupas Krivickas – 4.6%, 8. LLRA-KŠS – 4.2%, 9. Lithuanian Freedom Union – 2.5%.

Party expectations, a survey of party leaders by BNS:

LSDP – 18% after the first round, 38-42 mandates as a final result.

TS-LKD – 20% after the first round, approximately 40 mandates as a final result.

LVŽS – 20-30% after the first round, 35-50 mandates as a final result.

Liberal Movement – 7.4% after the first round, 16 mandates as a final result.

Labour Party – 10% after the first round, 20 mandates as a final result.

Order and Justice – 6.5% and 11-12 mandates after both rounds.

Anti-Corruption Coalition of Naglis Puteikis and Kristupas Krivickas – 14% after the first round, 19 mandates after both rounds.

LLRA-KŠS – 8% after the first round (expect victories in 3 single-mandate electoral districts in the first round), 15 mandates as a final result.