As various parties emerge, disappear or reorganize themselves in the political space, the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP), the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats – TS-LKD) and the Liberal Movement are making their third firm entry into the Seimas, according to Toma Andrulytė, tv3.lt. But are these parties so steadfast? The news portal tv3.lt invites you to see how the Social Democrats, Conservatives and Liberals have fared in the last three elections.
Notably, the number of constituencies has remained the same for all three elections (71 constituencies), but the number of precincts has decreased. In 2016, the population voted in 1996 precincts; in 2020, in 1989, and 2024, the number of precincts has been reduced to 1947.
This year was the most active year for voters, with 1,241,327 participating in the first round of the Parliamentary elections. It represents 52.06% of the total voting population.
In the 2020 elections, 1,175,026 people took part, 47.81% of the people on the electoral roll.
In 2016, the turnout was higher, with 1,273,427 people casting their vote, representing half—50.64%—of the total electorate.
The Conservative direction
As we know, the Conservatives’ most successful elections were the 2020 Seimas elections. Then, 292,124 voters, or 24.86% of the total, voted for the TS-LKD.
The Conservatives then won 23 seats and thus the opportunity to form a government.
In 2016, 276 275 (21.70%) fewer people voted for TS-LKD. TS-LKD won 20 seats, but the Peasants, who narrowly missed the multi-member seats, performed well in the single-member seats in the second round of elections and celebrated their victory in 2016 with 54 Seimas seats.
This was the worst of the last three elections for the Conservatives. This year, 221,975 (17.96%) voters voted for the TS-LKD, meaning that the Conservatives lost 69,000 votes compared to the last election.
Although for a few hours, the Conservatives were behind not only the Social Democrats but also Nemuno Aušra (The Dawn of Nemunas), the TS-LKD moved up to second place when the results from the large polling stations were received.
According to current data, the Conservatives win 17 seats in the Seimas in multi-member seats. Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė was elected in the first round of single-mandate seats.
The substantial rise of the Social Democrats
The opposition Social Democrats are already trying on the ruling party’s shoes and talking to potential coalition partners. In this year’s first round of elections, the LSDP won 240,266 votes (19.36%), 17,000 more than their opponents TS-LKD.
The Social Democrats won 18 seats in the first round and are already planning a coalition with the Democratic Union Vardan Lietuvos (In the Name of Lithuania) and the Lithuanian Peasants’ and Greens’ Union (LVŽS).
In single-mandate seats, the Social Democrats secured two seats in Seimas after the first round. The total number of seats will be decided after the re-vote on 27 October.
The LSDP’s result in the last elections was much more disappointing. That time, the Social Democrats had twice as many voters—108 649 (9.25%).
After winning eight multi-member and five single-member seats, the Social Democrats remained in opposition.
The previous parliamentary elections in 2016 were more successful for the Social Democrats, with 183 597 (14.42%) voters casting their ballots.
With 13 multi-member seats and four single-member seats, the LSDP joined the ruling party with 17 seats.
Liberal Movement – not very popular, but confident
The Liberal Movement is not a popular party among voters but is far from hopeless. Although they have not been winning first place recently and do not have the same loyal voters as the Conservatives, the Liberals have broken the voting barrier in the last three elections. They will be part of the governing coalition after the 2020 elections.
It is true that in a multi-member constituency, they received the lowest number of votes (79 755) and six seats compared to 2024 and 2016, but after the second round in 2020, the Liberals secured seven more seats in the Seimas.
This year, the Liberals had a better result. The party polled 95,524 votes (7.70%) in multi-member seats, securing seven seats. After the first round, the Liberals got three single-seat seats.
In 2016, the Liberal Movement did even better, winning 115,361 votes (9.06%). Eight parliamentary seats were won in multi-member seats, and six more were won in single-member seats after the second round.
However, the Liberals remained on the opposition side when the political mergers started.
The first round of the 2024 parliamentary elections is over
The first round of the Seimas elections took place on Sunday. According to the Chief Electoral Commission (VRK), the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (19.36% of the vote) received the highest support in the multi-mandate constituency.
However, the incumbent ruling Conservatives were not far behind with 17.96% of the vote.
The third-placed party, Nemuno Aušra, received 14.99% of the vote.
The Democratic Union Vardan Lietuvos (In the Name of Lithuania) will also be in the next Seimas with 9.24% of the vote, the Liberal Movement with 7.70% of the vote and the Lithuanian Peasants’ and Greens’ Union (LVŽS) with 7.02% of the vote.
52.06% of Lithuanian voters went to the polls to express their civic will. Four years ago, in 2020, the turnout was 47.16%.
Fourteen parties and one coalition are competing for 141 seats in the Seimas. 71 Members of the Seimas are elected in single-mandate constituencies. According to the CEC’s preliminary data, eight single-seat MPs have already been elected in the first round.
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