According to lrytas article, former Commander of US Land Forces in Europe Ben Hodges responded to a war game scenario published by German daily Die Welt, in which Russia launches a successful attack in the Suwalki Corridor. He warned that there are still serious gaps in NATO’s Northeastern flank. He expressed confidence in the defence capabilities of the Baltic states, but stressed that they must be prepared to fight for several days, or even two weeks in the worst case, without significant reinforcements.
In an article in the British newspaper The Telegraph, Hodges described the German-initiated war game as an exercise that provides “valuable lessons” for the alliance. In the fictional scenario, a limited Russian operation in the Suwalki Corridor succeeded due to NATO’s lack of political will and slow response.
Hodges emphasised that NATO is not “a big wall behind which everyone can hide.” In his words, Lithuania and the allied forces deployed there are part of that wall, not just “protected territory.”
Therefore, according to him, the Baltic states must be psychologically and materially prepared to stand alone until larger German or US units arrive. Hodges recalled that this assessment came as a shock to the Lithuanians themselves a few years ago.
He urged the region to take the concept of universal defence seriously and to create something similar to what Finland has been doing for decades. Such a system involves not only the military, but also civil society, infrastructure, and state institutions.
The Baltic scenario
The two weeks mentioned by Hodges are the “absolute worst-case scenario” in which a Russian attack catches NATO completely unprepared. He spoke of a situation in which the Alliance is unable to move its forces through the Suwalki Corridor to Lithuania in time, and Polish units do not engage in battle.
In that case, according to Hodges, additional brigades would have to be rushed in from Germany or US forces from Poland. The biggest problem here is not courage, but logistics and the railway network.
“Soldiers don’t sit in their vehicles like in a race, waiting for the starting signal,” Hodges said ironically.
Even in a crisis, until a state of war is formally declared, it is impossible to “switch” all tracks to military equipment overnight. Just reorienting the railway network could take several days.
Hodges nevertheless believes that the German and Polish railways would respond quickly in such a situation. However, even in the best-case scenario, the Baltic states would still have to withstand a period without significant reinforcement from their allies.
Weaknesses
Hodges emphasised that the number of land brigades alone is not enough. According to him, it is necessary to assess the entire spectrum of capabilities – from air forces to air defence and long-range strike systems.
He noted that Finland, Sweden, Norway, and other countries already have, or will have, many modern fighter jets, such as the F-35 and Gripen. In his opinion, this would allow NATO to dominate the airspace against Russian military aviation.
According to Hodges, the situation with ammunition and missiles looks much worse.
“In every exercise I participated in, the ammunition ran out after two days,” Hodges pointed out the weak spot.
He explained that no country wants to stockpile huge amounts of ammunition that “may never be needed” because it is very expensive. However, current stocks would clearly not be sufficient for a prolonged, intense conflict.
Hodges is most concerned about air defence and infrastructure protection. He urged people to imagine a scenario in which Russian occupiers in the Baltic Sea region would strike with the same intensity as they attack Ukraine every night.
Massive strikes
Hodges spoke of hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles simultaneously targeting Klaipėda, Riga, Tallinn, Gdańsk, and other logistics hubs. In his opinion, Russian occupiers are well aware that these ports and hubs are critical to NATO’s defence.
“It would be a shock if it turned out that we are unable to protect our airports from drones,” warned Hodges. He reminded that such scenarios must be seriously modelled when NATO plans its defence.
According to Hodges, Die Welt’s war game has already brought some of these issues into the public arena. However, he suggests organising another scenario in which Russian occupiers systematically destroy the entire Western transport infrastructure.
In such a situation, he said, it would become clear how secure NATO ports, railways, and logistics chains really are. This would allow for an objective assessment of whether the Alliance is prepared for a longer conflict, rather than one lasting only a week.
ISW analysts and other experts have previously pointed out that Russia is using the war against Ukraine as a testing ground for combinations of drones, missiles, and electronic warfare. Therefore, such scenarios cannot be considered “impossible” within NATO.
The Kaliningrad factor
Hodges devoted a lot of attention to the Kaliningrad exclave. According to him, a real deterrence policy must clearly show Russia that an attack on the Baltic states would lead to the rapid loss of Kaliningrad as a military factor.
“I am almost certain that Kaliningrad would be taken out within the first 24 hours,” Hodges assured. He emphasised that he was not talking about a ground invasion, but about the ability to neutralise the exclave militarily.
The first stage, according to him, would involve cyberattacks and electronic warfare. The aim would be to disable the air defences, long-range artillery, and long-range missiles deployed in Kaliningrad.
Once the airspace was open, Hodges envisaged targeted strikes with long-range artillery and missiles against key military targets. Such targets could include airfields, missile launch sites, command posts, and naval infrastructure.
Hodges does not believe that such an operation would be impossible without direct US support. He assured that the region’s allies – primarily Poland – already have the capabilities to inflict “significant damage” on Kaliningrad.
Germany’s role
Hodges also commented on how Die Welt’s war game affected Germany’s image. In the simulation, the US appeared passive, while Germany seemed indecisive and unprepared to act without American leadership.
“As an American living in Germany, I am sensitive to this,” Hodges admitted. He emphasised that Germany is the strongest and most important country in Europe and must remain so.
He claims that the external perception that Berlin is hesitant or indecisive could undermine deterrence. It is therefore important that both Germans and allies clearly understand what measures Berlin is prepared to take in the event of a crisis.
Hodges emphasised that in every war game, it is necessary to clearly disclose the assumptions – warning time, available capabilities, and political constraints. Only then can discussions after the exercise yield real benefits.
In his words, the Die Welt simulation served a useful purpose by forcing the public and politicians to ask uncomfortable questions. However, he cautioned against accepting the game’s outcome as the only truth about NATO’s response in reality.
Total defence
Hodges reminded that Lithuania and other Baltic countries must now seriously consider not only the front line, but also the preparedness of the entire society. He mentioned the Finnish model of total defence as an example worth adapting.
This refers to whether the state, municipalities, and businesses are prepared for power outages, cyberattacks, and road and rail blockades. Hodges emphasised that this is not just a concern for the military.
He also questioned whether Poland is really prepared to send ground forces to defend Lithuania. Not because the Poles are afraid to fight, but because Warsaw might consider an attack on Lithuania to be “the beginning of a major offensive against Poland.”
That is why German and American troops are deployed in the Suwałki Corridor. Hodges reminded that this border is considered the weakest link in NATO in Europe, which is why the Alliance’s presence there is being deliberately increased.
Hodges’ message to NATO countries, and especially the Baltic states, remains simple but stern. “We must be prepared to fight alone, but in such a way that the enemy knows that if they attack, they will very quickly lose Kaliningrad and suffer a blow where they least expect it,” Hodges emphasised.
Be the first to comment