Banks lower Estonia’s 2014 growth estimate

“Export opportunities have worsened as the economic outlook for Estonia’s main export markets has deteriorated. In 2014, economic growth relies primarily on private consumption, while investments and exports will start contributing more in 2015,” Swedbank said in its new Economic Outlook.

The bank forecast 2.3 percent growth for 2015.

Another bank group SEB leaves this year’s GDP estimate unchanged at 0.5 percent, but revised the growth forecast for 2015 down to 1.8 percent, from 2.3 percent published in May.

“Russian economic weakness – with GDP expected to be largely unchanged both this year and in 2015, followed by weak growth in 2016 – and trade sanctions will slow the economic recovery in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Overall growth in the Baltics will accelerate somewhat, following a slump in 2013-2014. Low inflation will allow significant real wage increases in all three countries, helping private consumption to offset weak external demand. Estonia, with its large export dependence, will see GDP growth of 0.5 percent this year, 1.8 percent in 2015 and 3.0 percent in 2016,” SEB said.

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