The Seimas elections stormed by and wiped out the incumbent coalition parties. Based on preliminary data the Homeland Union – Lithuania Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) led by Gabrielius Landsbergis is neck and neck for the lead with Ramūnas Karbauskis and Saulius Skvernelis’ Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union (LVŽS).
One way or another this is a massive win for the “Peasants”. In 2012 the party failed to pass the 5% vote barrier and only earned one mandate through the single-mandate electoral districts. This time the party has not only passed the barrier, but even sprinted ahead, earning 21.62% of the vote and thus 19 mandates in Seimas.
The priority given by voters did not change the electoral roll much. S. Skvernelis remains at the top of the list with over 110 thousand votes. R. Karbauskis comes in second at over 105 thousand votes. Third is Rima Baškienė, a loyal comrade in arms of Karbauskis through thick and thin.
The Homeland Union camp has been in a celebratory mood. Preliminary data suggests they earned 21.62% of the vote, earning 20 seats in Seimas.
Priority votes do switch things around for this party however. G. Landsbergis remains first with over 120 thousand votes. Ingrida Šimonytė, the former Minister of Finance, comes in second with over 107 thousand votes. She was fourth in the electoral roll. Party veteran Irena Degutienė drops from second place to fourth and former PM Andrius Kubilius remains third as before.
There have been significant shifts from top to bottom in this list with Rimantas Jonas Dagys descending from 15th to 23rd, while Mykolas Majauskas rose from 36th to 12th and Tadas Langaitis from 29th to 11th.
The election has not been favourable for the Social Democrats. They expected a victory, but will have to be content with a third place, at least in the multi-mandate electoral district. Preliminary data suggest the Social Democrats earned 14.44% of the vote, earning 13 mandates.
Priority votes are particularly interesting in this case. PM and party chairman Algirdas Butkevičius only received 60 thousand priority votes, despite his ratings having been among the highest until they started gradually decreasing lately. This is significantly less than the results of competitors Skvernelis, Karbauskis and Landsbergis.
Another peculiarity is former party leader and former PM Gediminas Kirkilas rising to second place in the LSDP electoral roll, albeit only earning 25 thousand votes and thus being far behind Butkevičius.
In third is incumbent Minister of Finance Rasa Budbergytė with 24.8 thousand votes, fourth is Algirdas Sysas, the head of the lectoral campaign, with 24 thousand votes. The latter has often been named the likely replacement for Butkevičius, who may be pressured to resign from party leadership following the lost election. Budbergytė, who is associated with Kirkilas, may also vie for the post of PM.
A relatively unknown member of Seimas Raminta Popovienė dropped from fifth place in the electoral roll to tenth, while incumbent Minister of Foreign Affairs Linas Linkevičius rose from 34th to 9th.
Liberals survived
The Liberal movement is grateful to have survived. Furthermore, having survived a massive corruption scandal, the party has earned 8.99% of the vote, earning 8 mandates according to preliminary data.
The priority votes have done little to change the Liberal’s electoral roll. Frontrunner Eugenijus Gentvilas remains first with 38 thousand votes. Next is Olympic gold medallist Virgilijus Alekna, while Gintaras Steponavičius rises from 7th to 3rd.
One of the more notable jumps is that of Aušrinė Armonaitė, from 19th to 6th.
Party leader Remigijus Šimašius could not participate in the election because to do so he would have to forfeit his position as mayor of Vilnius.
Other parties
The biggest news this election is the failure of the Labour Party to enter Seimas after having been the frontrunner last election. Labour balanced on the 5% limit for a time, until the morning hours when it dropped to 4.71%, leaving it without mandates.
Order and Justice earned 5.36% of the vote, earning 5 mandates. The Polish Electoral Action in Lithuania – Christian Families’ Union earned 5.47% of the vote, also earning 5 mandates. The remaining parties failed to enter Seimas, similarly to the Labour Party.
N. Putekis and K. Krivickas’ coalition earned 6.09% of the vote, but as this is a coalition it needed 7% instead, thus also failing to obtain any mandates.
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