19 political parties have registered to run in the Seimas elections. Still, some have decided to cooperate, while others have attracted or are seeking to attract politicians who performed well in the presidential elections. However, in Lithuania, parliamentary elections are usually won by traditional political parties or newcomers who have suddenly become prominent. In contrast, smaller forces or political actors with a sharper approach can still not find a centre to align themselves with or are gnashing their teeth at one another, Eglė Samoškaitė states in TV3.lt.
Vytautas Dumbliauskas, a political scientist and lecturer at Mykolas Romeris University, says that such fragmentation of marginal forces is good news for Lithuania because fewer destructive political forces enter the Seimas. Systemic political forces win more seats, although sometimes problem-causing party shines in the elections.
Remigijus Žemaitaitis and his Nemuno Dawn will likely be this trouble-maker this year. At the same time, other more minor actors are likely to stay within the electoral barrier and split the vote on the left of the political spectrum.
“It is good for Lithuania that these marginal forces do not agree with each other just because there are fewer parties in Seimas. I believe there could be four of them – two in position, two in opposition. Well, let there be six, and that’s it, within sight, then it’s easier to agree. If you have read, during the Fourth French Republic, the National Assembly was doing ‘the devil’; Charles de Gaulle had to rewrite the Constitution because governments were being forced out almost every month. In a word, nothing good came out of the many parties in Parliament”, says Dumbliauskas.
Petras Gražulis will have another Gražulis
The large systemic political parties usually participate in all elections, form governing majorities, and spend some time in opposition. However, the process is stable, with only the number of party representatives in Seimas or municipal councils changing.
For the little guys, it is different. Every election becomes a test of reasonable or unreasonable hopes. Still, neither the electoral deposits nor the electoral barrier of the multi-member constituency in the Seimas discourages them from seeking to get into power. This electoral barrier is 5% of the electorate, or 7% in the case of a coalition list. If the barrier is not crossed, the votes cast for these actors go into limbo, leaving the other parties with more seats in Seimas.
After his partial success in the European Parliament elections, Gražulis, who heads the Union of People and Justice, has decided to form a coalition for the Seimas elections as well and intends to unite under his umbrella the Union of Christians of Rimantas Jonis Dagys, the Professional Union Centre of Kęstutis Juknys, as well as the Association of the Lithuanian Family Movement of Raimundas Grinevičius and the movement of the imprisoned Antanas Kandrotas, We Lietuva.
According to Mr Gražulis, the coalition’s list of candidates, Wake up, Lietuva, may be proposed to be led by Naglis Puteikis of the People and Justice Party. However, no final decision has been made. Mr Gražulis himself cannot lead the list, as he was expelled from the Seimas under impeachment proceedings and, therefore, cannot be elected or appointed to a position requiring an oath to the Republic of Lithuania for ten years. Mr Gražulis currently works in the European Parliament.
But it is possible that the party has, or is looking for, a person with the surname Gražulis to run in the elections. This strategy – involving a random person with a famous name – is called black election technology. “It seems to me that Gražulis will still be on our list. They threw one person out of the Seimas, but it will still be Gražulis”, Gražulis explained, but did not want to reveal the person in question.
Gražulis wanted to join forces with Viktor Uspaskich and his Labour Party, but they had a different opinion on the war between Russia and Ukraine. Mr Gražulis believes that Ukraine should not be forced to give up its territories to Russia, and he sees peace only if Russia withdraws from Ukraine.
“There is not a single person in the world who is in favour of war; everyone is in favour of peace. But having said A, let’s say B: at whose expense for peace – Ukraine’s or Russia’s. I am in favour of Ukraine retaining all its territories, Russia withdrawing from the occupied Ukrainian territories, and there will be peace,” said Gražulis.
“We would have agreed with Uspaskich; he also said similarly that he was in favour of peace and not at the expense of Ukraine. But it is not Viktor playing first fiddle there, but Mindaugas Puidokas, whose position is slightly different. Viktor is energetic. I thought he was categorical, but he was completely diplomatic, and Mindaugas is the biggest position-taker, so Viktor gave in a little bit”, the politician added.
Uspaskich has teamed up with Puidokas and others
Uspaskich returned to the Lithuanian political arena after some representatives of the Labour Party walked out, as the European Public Prosecutor’s Office is investigating Uspaskich for possible acquisition of high-value foreign property and document forgery in 2014-2020. Some Labour MPs said they were tired of the constant cases.
In this case, the Financial Crimes Investigation Service (FICI) previously reported that a natural person is suspected of fraudulently obtaining more than €500,000 in EU budget funds. The individual may have embezzled the salaries and unemployment benefits of non-existent MEP assistants.
In this context, Uspaskich is trying to bring together several organisations under one umbrella for the Seimas elections: the remnants of the Labour Party, the Puidokas Lithuanian Christian Democracy Party, the Samogitian Party, the presidential candidate Valdas Tutkas and his team, his former wife Jolanta Blažytė, the actor Žilvinas Tratas, the former Peasant Stasys Jakeliūnas, and the former social democrat Mindaugas Bastis. The name of this grouping should be Peace Coalition.
When asked about his aspirations for peace, Uspaskich explained that there are conflicts all over the world, but the war between Russia and Ukraine is the most painful for Lithuanians. “We need to think about the peace of the whole world, so we need to send signals of peace to the whole world, not signals of aggression. As for Russia and Ukraine, Lithuania is not the player that can resolve that conflict. We are in favour of peace and diplomacy in resolving this conflict without hurting Ukraine, ” said Mr Uspaskich.
Uspaskich intends to lead the coalition list himself, while his former spouse, Blažytė, is only participating in the process but will not seek a mandate in the Seimas.
“She has no ambitions for any leadership, mandates and so on, but Puidokas’s team is consulting her there because Jolanta is also for peace and diplomacy,” explained Uspaskich.
Similar “we are for peace” statements were trendy in the Soviet Union and among politicians, propagandists and public figures in undemocratic Russia. Usually, the idea is to limit Western arms supplies to Ukraine or to prevent the US from providing its security umbrella to European countries through NATO. This ‘peace’ could mean that Ukraine or European countries would live under Moscow’s dictates simply out of fear because Russia has nuclear weapons and a large army that has been tested in the Ukrainian war.
When asked whether Puidokas really has the greatest influence on the coalition’s outlines, as Gražulis said, Uspaskich did not agree: according to the politician, he is just tolerant.
“You see, I have been living for some time now in a philosophy where peace and no aggression prevail. This is my way of being tolerant and peaceful. Maybe it seems so. They want to shout and climb the bar, but it will not work. That is their way of leading from the top. Maybe that is the way it looks to them. But we need all kinds of politicians. Peter has one ideology, one line. Although ideologically, there is a lot of overlap, unfortunately, when there are many legal entities, all those leaders and important people want to be in the top ten. It doesn’t work out that way, so agreeing is difficult. I was not interested in positions or mandates, so I was put in charge. I moderated and allowed everybody to speak, but I did not allow shouting or raising my voice. To connect, we must be respectful and say ‘Sir, dear, honourable’. That is why they thought I was too tolerant”, laughed Uspaksich.
Eduardas Vaitkus took over the shell of a failed party
Eduardas Vaitkus, who did well in the presidential elections, seems to have an excellent assessment of his chances, so he chose the already established Lithuanian People’s Party for the Seimas elections, which is headed by Tauras Jakelaitis, which fared very, very poorly in the last Seimas elections, not only not winning any seats, but also finishing last in the whole country.
Now Vaitkus promises to bring his team to the party’s list: signatory Zigmas Vaišvila, lawyer Mažvydas Misiūnas, editor of Laisvo Laikraščio (Free Newspaper) Aurimas Drižius, ophthalmologist Ieva Sliesoraitytė, philosopher Andrius Martinkus, and knitter from Panevėžys, Raimundas Mikuševičius.
But Vaitkus does not try to unite with anyone because he sees no reason to. Ramūnas Karbauskis, the Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union Chairman, asked not to mention Vaitkus’s name and said he would not even say hello if he met him on the street. Vaitkus is not a good friend either, as the Peasants supported Ignas Vėgėlė in the presidential elections, and the Social Democrats supported Gitanas Nausėda. According to Vaitkus, supporting another candidate in the polls is a value divide.
“I am not involved in selling values. Moreover, no party that I know of has said, or objected as aggressively as I have, that we cannot set the goal of defeating Russia on the battlefield, that this is suicide and the destruction of the Lithuanian state”, Vaitkus explained.
The Labour Party is unacceptable to Vaitkus because, together with the Liberal Movement and individual politicians, it was convicted in the MG Baltic political corruption case.
Ignas Vėgėlė is trying to negotiate with the Peasants but is already tired
For several months now, Ignas Vėgėlė, who is third in the presidential elections, has been trying to negotiate with Ramūnas Karbauskis, the Chairman of the Peasant and Greens Union, on a coalition list that would include not only himself and the Peasant and Greens parties but also the National Union led by Vytautas Radžvilas and the Young Lithuania of Stanislovas Buškevičius.
The National Association is not at all enthusiastic about this idea and will participate in the elections on its own, while Stanislavas Buškevičius is delighted. Karbauskis still does not give a definite answer—the name of Vėgėlė in the list might be beneficial to the Peasants, but the Peasants are already doing quite well in the rating tables, so it makes little sense to accept various people from smaller parties.
“The Peasant and Greens Union has one weak point – we don’t have many people in our party with legal backgrounds. We don’t have many people qualifying as Ministers of Justice. So, again, we need to restructure the shadow government that we have accordingly, strengthen it, and make it analogous to what it could be if it were. In the sense that the people who hold positions in the shadow government, the same people would be offered in the event of a negotiation in which we get certain positions. So that it is clear to everyone who will be a minister if the Union of Peasant and Greens has this or that responsibility, this is not something to think about after the elections, but today,” said Karbauskis.
The politician admits that the list of Peasants could be more comprehensive, but he does not promise a place for Vėgėlė in the top five. “Only people from the Peasants and Greens Union will be in the top five,” said Karbauskis.
In principle, he suggests that the lawyer should remain active in politics with the Peasants and, if successful, be considered for a post in the Ministry of Justice. He also suggests that he might be considered for the presidential elections in 2029 when Gitanas Nausėda is no longer running.
“Maybe we will agree, maybe we won’t – it’s hard to say. I have not lost hope yet, but whatever happens, yes. But I am making efforts. By the end of the week, it will be possible to say more seriously; I don’t have much to say now. I am already tired of all these prolonged discussions with everybody and all the coordination, but wait a little longer”, explained Vėgėlė to tv3.lt.
19 parties registered
According to the Central Election Commission’s data, 19 political parties have registered to participate in the Seimas elections, but some may decide to form coalitions before 9 August.
The traditional big systemic parties usually run alone unless they include non-partisans on their lists of candidates or in single-member constituencies.
Smaller parties sometimes unite and cooperate. Among the more minor, non-parliamentary political parties, Artūras Paulauskas and Artūras Zuokas’ Freedom and Justice, Vytautas Radžvilas and Vytautas Sinica’s National Association, and the Lithuanian Green Party led by Ieva Budraitė will take part in the elections separately.
Nemuno Dawn was founded primarily for these elections by Žemaitaitis, a former Member of the Seimas who, according to the Constitutional Court, broke the Constitution and his oath. This politician and his party can muddy the political waters if they enter the Seimas, and public opinion polls show good trends for him. However, he is also undermined by the dispersion of votes among smaller political forces.
Be the first to comment