The latest ratings of politicians and political parties, released on Friday, must have raised eyebrows among a significant portion of the ruling class, including the country’s top leaders, Agnė Liubertaitė states in lrytas.lt.
A poll of residents conducted by Vilmorus on behalf of Lietuvos Rytas found that some members of the public already view President Gitanas Nausėda more negatively than positively. At the same time, Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė’s Government is already being compared to Andrius Kubilius’s government in terms of unpopularity.
What is more, the Social Democrats, who had long reigned at the top of the ratings, have been overtaken by the Conservatives, as they were in November.
Political scientists interviewed by the Lrytas portal also looked at the results of the latest public opinion poll. In their opinion, since the country’s leader has increasingly associated himself with the current ruling majority, it is natural that they are now sinking together. However, according to Matas Baltrukevičius, an associate analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis (VPAI), the decline in public trust in politicians is definitely a bad sign for Lithuania.
“Of course, ratings have to be earned, but it is healthy when there are at least some politicians whom the public truly trusts, especially in the current context, which is difficult due to all the international circumstances,” said the political scientist.
For his part, Ainius Lašas, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Humanities, and Arts at Kaunas University of Technology (KTU), explained which group of voters is sending such telling signals to the government and why, as well as what political future may await the Democratic Union Vardan Lietuvos (In the Name of Lithuania) leader Saulius Skvernelis and his political force.
It will not be easy to get out of the hole
As previously announced, for the first time in his years in office, President Nausėda received more unfavourable (42.6%) than favourable (38.2%) ratings. In November, 45.2% of respondents rated Nausėda favourably, while 32.3% rated him unfavourably.
Only one other country leader, Rolandas Paksas, has received such a negative rating to date.
Speaking about the decline in confidence in the president, Baltrukevičius, an associate analyst at VPAI, said that he was particularly struck by the comparisons between Nausėda and Paksas that had appeared in the public sphere.
“For example, the fact that cultural awards will not even be presented at the Presidential Palace is something that did not happen even under Paksas, although there were scandals then too, and in reality, in terms of ratings, this is a situation that has not been seen since Paksas’ time.
On the one hand, it could be said that these situations are not entirely comparable, because Nausėda is simply losing trust, whereas Paksas faced different challenges, on a different level. But on the other hand, what we are seeing seems to make a lot of sense,” Baltrukevičius said.
The political scientist does not doubt that the decline in the country’s leader’s ratings was greatly influenced by Nausėda’s lack of involvement in key issues. However, the president himself, who responded to the poll on Friday, said he believed that his ratings had fallen precisely because of his active participation in domestic politics.
“There are probably several factors here – first of all, how Nausėda performs the functions of commander-in-chief of the armed forces, which are constitutionally assigned to him. Until now, we have seen him more active in defence, foreign security, and political issues, but the fact that we do not see him in the context of the balloon crisis could cost us, because it is simply elementary – there is disorder in the state, balloons are flying, and we don’t see the president – we see Ruginienė.
And in reality, the State Defence Council continues to meet every month as if nothing were amiss. Now, let’s say, the story of Kapčiamiestis – the president promised that, if necessary, he would go, so we can already tell that it’s not that it will be required, but that it was already critical. It’s a pity that it didn’t happen yesterday, the day before yesterday, or much earlier.
We can assume that there will always be people who are dissatisfied with such a neighbourhood, even those who understand that the training ground is necessary, would prefer that someone else move out or face other inconveniences because of it. But here, the president’s role in domestic politics is lacking,” commented Baltrukevičius.
However, according to the political scientist, the president’s somewhat hesitant stance is not a new trend, as former president Grybauskaitė did not immediately speak out on issues that divided society.
“She would wait a little until the situation settled down somewhat, and then she would express her opinion. When Nausėda did so, public figures clearly aligned him with those who wanted the LRT amendments adopted, and he was automatically associated with them.
His later intervention in the situation did not help him shake this off, and he was unable to present himself as an impartial mediator. Yes, a working group was formed, but that working group now seems more like a temporary release of emotions than a real opportunity to find a compromise and solve the problem,” explained the VPAI associate analyst.
According to Baltrukevičius, Nausėda is already seen by the public as a member of the ruling coalition, so it is only natural that his ratings are now falling along with those of the ruling parties.
“We can see that Ruginienė’s ratings are falling, as are those of the government and the president, and in general, this situation where many are falling, and few are rising, Skvernelis is like a leader, but even his ratings are not very impressive. It just seems that society’s trust in politicians is falling, and there are not really any positive trends,” noted the political scientist.
Overall, this trend is bad news for the country, added Baltrukevičius.
“Of course, ratings have to be earned, but it is healthy when there are at least some politicians whom the public really trusts, especially in the current context, which is difficult due to all the international circumstances.
And again, there are no easy solutions for the president on how to get out of this situation; there are no simple scenarios. For example, both Adamkus and Grybauskaitė had relatively high ratings. Still, they were very different as individuals, and simply copying someone else’s behaviour does not necessarily suit one’s personality or political style, so it will undoubtedly be challenging for the president to try to get out of this hole.
What might be possible is to stabilise the situation at least, but even that will require serious effort,” noted the political scientist.
When asked whether what we are seeing with Nausėda is a sudden or gradual change, Lašas, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Humanities, and Arts at KTU, stated that it was indeed a gradual change.
“And there is probably more than one reason for this effect. It is a complex effect. That is, people form their impressions over time, and these impressions change unless some dramatic events suddenly change something.
In this case, Iew formed over time. Probably since the Seimas election campaign, when the president very clearly associated himself with the Social Democrats. And considering the never-ending stories with the Social Democrats, with the formation of their government, various coalition tensions, and his own involvement in that formation process—all of this ultimately brought him such bitter fruit,” assessed Lašas.
How should the country’s leader now turn those bitter fruits into sweeter ones? The political scientist named one essential recipe. According to him, if we assume that the president’s rating always stands on his “supra-partisanship,” then he needs to return to precisely that role.
“Because, let’s remember that even Brazauskas, who had obvious ties to the Social Democrats, to the left, and, incidentally, Grybauskaitė, was also politically associated with specific governments, but then they seemed to rise above their previous roles and became presidents.
In this case, as long as the president maintained that above-party role and function and was, so to speak, a fair judge, not someone involved in one party camp or another, he kept his popularity.
When he became more of a party player and even exceeded his powers by becoming an active participant in the formation of a coalition government, that’s when all his troubles began,” explained Lašas.
Of course, the political scientist continued, the fact that part of society no longer trusts Nausėda was undoubtedly influenced by the president’s inconsistent stance.
“It’s as if he said one thing at the beginning, then acted somewhat differently, and then came up with some other requests. There was no consistency, and in the end, he failed to please either side.
And then, neither the left nor the right, and in the end, people were disappointed by his inconsistency,” said the dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Humanities, and Arts at KTU.
Voters’ message to Ruginienė and her government
In December, 30.3% of respondents had a favourable opinion of Prime Minister Ruginienė, while 49.1% had an unfavourable opinion (in November, the population was slightly more favourable toward the prime minister, with 35.4% and 41%, respectively).
The cabinet led by the new politician was rated significantly worse than before. Currently, only 11.9% of residents trust the government, while 46.5% do not (in November, these figures were 16.8% and 41.8%, respectively).
Political scientist Baltrukevičius noted that governments are often unpopular in general, and the fact that cabinet members are more often rated negatively than positively is not particularly newsworthy.
However, the analyst added that, for Ruginienė, these ratings remain a signal that should not be ignored.
“I saw that Vladas Gaidys (Head of Vilmorus, – author’s note) said that the last time this happened was with Kubilius’ government. This is the height of the economic crisis, when circumstances are, of course, complicated, but that does not, in itself, mean the ratings should be low just because of those circumstances. Obviously, this is bad news.
The government probably had one such direct major test, the balloon crisis, in which the president was less involved, the government communicated a lot, but that communication – “the balloons flew and will fly” – well, why should people trust a government that practically throws up its hands and gives up, saying that the problem cannot be solved?” wondered Baltrukevičius.
Looking at the decline in confidence in Ruginienė and her government, political scientist Lašas shared Baltrukevičius’s thoughts. In his opinion, the negative assessment of the executive branch is not a major scandal, but it should still set off alarm bells.
“I would not say that this is a tragedy, but it is a signal that part of society finds the current government’s activities, communication, and direction unacceptable.
I want to remind you that when I. Ruginienė began her political journey as prime minister, her negative rating was 27.8%. Now it is 49.1%. This is according to a Vilmorus poll. We are talking about practically double growth, which cannot be a signal – it is obvious,” said Lašas.
While public opinion polls often show fluctuations and calculation errors, there is now no question about it.
“I would even like to remind you that last month her unfavourable rating was 41%, and now it is 49%, which is an increase of 8% . This is again a significant increase and cannot be easily dismissed. I think the signal is clear,” said the political scientist.
And this signal, continued Lašas, is being sent to the government and its leader not by just anyone, but by more moderate voters.
“Because those who are more radical, who are already very clearly divided into camps, perhaps like all this tension and politicisation of issues, and in this case, I am also talking about LRT issues, those who are already in clear camps, perhaps like these battles.
But for most people, if we were to ask what Lithuania’s most significant problems are, and Eurostat did this not so long ago, asking all European countries, people in Lithuania are most concerned about inflation.
Security issues come in second place, and the issues that the current government is dealing with – well, they are not there. It just seems to me that they are playing around in certain party bubbles, perhaps trying to take revenge for something, to show, to prove, but people don’t understand that.
And they feel that time is being wasted when there are many more pressing issues,” explained Lašas.
The Social Democratic Party itself had been at the top of the ratings table for a very long time, even after the Seimas elections. However, a turning point came in late autumn, and the Conservatives overtook the Social Democrats.
According to Lašas, these changes are not yet very significant, and the elections are still far away, so he himself is cautious about such ratings. However, this does not mean that the Social Democrats can relax, he added.
“This decline, say, since September, already exceeds 3%, if we compare it, for example, with the 15.1% in September.
And now it is 11.4%. This is already a statistically significant drop, which, incidentally, occurred last month. Although I would not overemphasise it, this trend is generally unfavourable to them.
The Social Democrats’ steady decline since September is not a very favourable sign for them. And we see similar figures in other polls. When we look not only at one poll, but also at others, we see that this trend is real and must be taken into account,” said Lašas.
How could Skvernelis take advantage of his increased popularity?
According to the political scientist, the poll data show that the liberals have been doing well recently. Still, in the long run, he believes that Skvernelis’ Democrats may also achieve a big win, as his own ratings are rising.
“And it is clear that those more moderate people who do not like all this tension are starting to look for alternatives. There has been no earthquake or collapse here yet, but there is some crumbling.
Because when you look at all the other signals, you can see that people don’t think the tension that currently prevails is very meaningful, and its escalation doesn’t seem very meaningful either.
People are gradually breaking away from the Social Democrats, reassessing their sympathies, and we are seeing a slight shift. Of course, this is an ongoing process. Still, the fact is that this game and identification with the Nemuno Aušra agenda, even taking over their agenda, certainly does not help the Social Democrats,” emphasised the dean of the KTU Faculty of Social Sciences, Humanities, and Arts.
Among residents who participated in the Vilnius survey, when asked whether they viewed these Lithuanian public figures favourably or unfavourably, Skvernelis ranked first, receiving 47% positive ratings and 33% unfavourable ratings.
How could this politician now capitalise on his popularity? Lašas considered that, due to his position in the opposition, there are not many opportunities for this at present, but the general line of action could continue.
“This is, I would say, subtle, moderate criticism of the current government, and it is clear that people are impressed by it. Such moderation and, let’s call it, common sense,” said the political scientist.
According to analyst Baltrukevičius, Skvernelis could make good use of the trust shown in him and even begin to think about the 2028 parliamentary elections.
“I liked what Skvernelis said on the Žinių Radijas show, that he would prefer the party’s ratings to be high. In reality, the situation is favourable to the Democrats—the Homeland Union has often been on the sidelines in Lithuania for at least 8 years. The Social Democrats are now significantly weakening their positions. However, this is not reflected in the ratings. Still, if we were to project the situation in 2028, the ruling party in Lithuania would be punished. The term is now complicated, and there are many problems, so there is a niche for a third political force.
And Skvernelis is probably in a good position, because there are people who do not like the Homeland Union and who are now disappointed with the Social Democrats, and this represents considerable potential,” said Baltrukevičius.
Therefore, Skvernelis should now do everything he can to boost his party’s ratings, the political scientist continued.
“Because there is a prospect that, by acting wisely and skilfully devising a strategy, the Democrats could perhaps fight for first place in the Seimas elections.
Of course, a lot of work and effort is still needed to ensure that not only Skvernelis is popular, but also the party,” commented the VPAI associate analyst.
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