Not even a week after the swearing-in of the new Government, the fate of the ruling coalition is already hanging in the balance – Remigijus Žemaitaitis, the leader of Nemuno Aušra, has issued an ultimatum to the coalition partners, outlining the conditions under which his faction would remain in the ruling majority, Indrė Naureckaitė states in Lrytas.
The condition publicly set by Žemaitaitis is simple: the Speaker of the Seimas, Saulius Skvernelis, must soon submit Žemaitaitis candidacy for the position of Deputy Speaker of the Seimas because, according to the coalition agreement, two deputy speaker positions belong to the Nemuno Aušra.
Skvernelis answer to Žemaitaitis is even more straightforward: “I cannot, and I will not do it”. The Speaker of the Seimas argues that he has stated in advance that Žemaitaitis legal problems must be resolved first and that any other of the 18 remaining Nemuno Aušra members could now be nominated for the post of Deputy Speaker of the Seimas.
Political experts interviewed by the news portal Lrytas are convinced that not getting the coveted seat in the Seimas is painful for Žemaitaitis. Still, at the same time, it is both a pretext and the politician’s usual modus operandi, which he uses to pursue his other goals.
Political analysts note that Skvernelis also has his own motives for not putting Žemaitaitis name on a secret ballot of the Seimas, in addition to the ones he has expressed publicly.
Experts take Žemaitaitis threats seriously – if he does not get his way, Žemaitaitis may slam the coalition’s door. However, not all representatives of Nemuno Aušra would follow him.
What is Žemaitaitis up to?
Although Žemaitaitis, when arguing why he was considering leaving the coalition, assured that it was not only a question of the post of Deputy Speaker of the Seimas but also “bullying over the process of appointing ministers”, Ignas Kalpokas, a political scientist at Vytautas Magnus University, pointed out that the leader of Nemuno Aušra had not made waves over the appointment of ministers so far.
“I think the Deputy Speaker of the Seimas chair hurts him personally because there hasn’t been so much spear-breaking on the appointment of ministers or any other issues. And when it came to his position, all of a sudden, all sorts of threats and blackmail started,” said Kalpokas.
However, according to the political analyst, this manoeuvre is a usual operating principle of Žemaitaitis, who makes drastic statements and then sees the reaction.
In this case, according to Kalpokas, it can be seen that Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas is not in a strong mood regarding submitting Žemaitaitis candidacy. At the same time, Skvernelis seems to be inclined to stick to his position.
“If Žemaitaitis sees that someone from his partners is already wavering, then it is possible to continue pushing and pressing that line and see what happens next. This is the traditional option where you push and see the reaction and whether you get what you need. If you don’t get it, you can back off as if it was “just by the way”, but if you see that there is a chance, you up the pressure”, the political analyst assessed.
According to Kalpokas, Skvernelis argument not to nominate Žemaitaitis for the time being is valid.
“Yes, Nemuno Aušra has a second position of Deputy Speaker of the Seimas; it is their prerogative to decide who to nominate for the position of Deputy Speaker of the Seimas – and how will the Nemuno Aušra group refuse to nominate Žemaitaitis there?
However, the argument that the Deputy Speaker of the Seimas should not be a person currently undergoing legal proceedings is valid. Ultimately, this decision rests on the shoulders of the Speaker of the Seimas.
If Speaker of the Seimas proposed this condition and is willing to abide by it, especially since this condition was at least publicly communicated at the time of the coalition’s formation, then I think this is a matter of internal decision-making.
Now Žemaitaitis himself is trying to interpret in his way the statement made during the formation of the coalition – what the legal problems that have ended mean”, Kalpokas noted.
Usual tactics
Vytautas Dumbliauskas, a political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), also sees the usual strategy of Žemaitaitis.
The political scientist said that he was not surprised by Žemaitaitis’ statement. However, he thought that the threats to leave the coalition would start a little later – not immediately after the formation of the government.
“This is Žemaitaitis’ strategy, his strategy – to create confusion, stir the winds, and destabilise. He built his popularity on this when he left the Seimas, travelled around Lithuania, complained and criticised the Conservatives.
And he is not getting away with it – he cannot do otherwise. Otherwise, he would be of no interest to anyone. If Žemaitaitis becomes an orderly coalition partner, he will become boring, and his public and voters need all these antics. It would be fun and entertaining if there were no war next door,” said Dumbliauskas.
“As soon as the coalition started to form, I immediately said that Paluckas and Skvernelis would suffer from the antics of Žemaitaitis”, he added.
Dumbliauskas said that he also understood Skvernelis logic in not nominating Žemaitaitis at this time.
“Skvernelis is right – Žemaitaitis is now being sued. Let the case end, let Žemaitaitis be acquitted or convicted, and that’s it. Is the person on trial now the Deputy Speaker of the Seimas? We would be sounding the alarm before the whole of Europe. That would be too much,” he said.
How realistic is it to step down?
Kalpokas said how far Žemaitaitis would go with his threats would depend on what he could realistically “get away with”.
“If he sees that the situation will not improve, he will try to de-escalate. The escalation will continue if he sees that the pressure can be justified. If they see that the big coalition partners, the Social Democrats, can give in, they will keep the pressure on until they give in”, the political analyst believes.
At the same time, Skvernelis, according to Kalpokas, has no reason to give in to the ultimatum of Žemaitaitis.
“The Social Democrats have absorbed most of all the accusations and negative emotions about Žemaitaitis’ presence in the coalition – in particular, Paluckas has absorbed much of it in his person. But Skvernelis and his party have managed to stay more or less in the middle without any particularly adverse reactions.
So, Skvernelis would not want to be seen as an enabler of Žemaitaitis. Moreover, if Žemaitaitis is given a position in the Seimas, then Skvernelis is creating another centre of power in the coalition with his own hands.
He does not particularly want that. He prefers to have only Agnė Širinskienė as a Deputy Speaker of the Seimas, who is usually seen as more talkative or as a “good cop” in Nemuno Aušra, Kalpokas assessed.
Dumbliauskas is convinced that everything is now in the hands of Skvernelis.
“Skvernelis has now been given the Speaker of the Seimas post, and he feels he likes it. After getting that post, he could agree to accept the Peasants into the coalition.
But everything is in Skvernelis hands, not Paluckas. Paluckas is completely powerless,” Dumbliauskas believes.
However, the political analyst believes that if Skvernelis does not give in and doesn’t submit Žemaitaitis’s candidacy to the Seimas, the latter may indeed carry out his threats and quit.
“Žemaitaitis is a player and will leave, but the question remains whether all members of his group will leave the coalition with him. Some of them, I think, will not. Already, there is a smell of a split.
Mrs Širinskienė is openly broadcasting to the public that she is not consulted. I think there will be more people like that who already have posts. If those who have moved to either the Skvernelis or the Social Democrats’ factions are allowed to keep their posts, why should they play with this Žemaitaitis? Probably not all of them would follow Žemaitaitis,” Dumbliauskas said.
They would get a bucket of cold water
The vote of the Seimas members on the position of Deputy Speaker is secret.
How the vote on Žemaitaitis candidacy would turn out, according to Kalpokas, is “a scenario worthy of a coin toss” – Skvernelis Democrats would probably not vote for him. Still, it is unclear how the votes of the Peasants and the Social Democrats would be distributed.
For his part, Dumbliauskas suggested that a secret ballot could “revive” Žemaitaitis.
“Conservatives and Liberals will vote against, the Social Democrats may also vote against, so if Žemaitaitis got such a resounding result, he would get a bucket of cold water on his head. He feels very strongly about his value now, and then his price would drop”, he said.
However, when assessing the outcome, Kalpokas cautiously predicted that all these threats would turn into nothing.
“There will just be a date to see who is stronger, who has more influence, and in the end, after the 30 days that Žemaitaitis promises, it will become clear that “one way or another we are moving on”.
The second scenario in terms of realism is maybe an actual departure”, Kalpokas said.
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