The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) has spoken its mind – it is saying goodbye to Remigijus Žemaitaitis Nemuno Aušra and initiating coalition negotiations with the Democratic Union Vardan Lietuvos, Agnė Liubertaitė says in lrytas article. The intrigue about which path the Social Democrats will choose next has been brewing for several weeks – because some opinions within the party itself differed quite radically Agnė Liubertaitė, writes lrytas.lt.
After announcing the final decision on the coalition following Saturday’s LSDP Council meeting, party chairman Mindaugas Sinkevičius did not rule out the possibility that he himself might soon become prime minister, replacing the current head of government, Inga Ruginienė.
“I am not shying away from responsibility,” the Social Democratic leader assured, but emphasised that Ruginienė is doing a good job and has the party’s trust.
Matas Baltrukevičius, an associate analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis (VPAI), speculates, however, that the Social Democrats’ negotiations with the Democrats will not be as easy as some might hope. True, even if he isn’t actively seeking the prime minister’s post, it’s possible that Sinkevičius will be pushed into it, in a sense, by both his own party and his new partners.
The political scientist also doubts that Žemaitaitis, who has been pushed into the opposition, could now become an even bigger thorn in the Social Democrats’ side.
“They will now be able to craft a narrative perfectly about how Nemuno Aušra is striving to work for Lithuania, how the Social Democrats prevented them from doing so, and ultimately kicked them out of the coalition,” explained Baltrukevičius.
Could they feel pressure from both sides?
As a reminder, the Social Democratic Party, which met behind closed doors, has finally made its decision—it is saying “goodbye” to Nemuno Aušra, led by Žemaitaitis. It will begin coalition negotiations with the Democratic Union of Vardan Lietuvos.
“I asked the council to support this scenario for change because I believe it is the right path for both the party and the state—to alter the current coalition composition and invite the Democratic Party Vardan Lietuvos to talks and political consultations,” said Sinkevičius.
According to him, the chairman of Nemuno Aušra, Žemaitaitis, has recently become even more radical. Although attempts were made to clarify and smooth out rough edges, the public currently needs stability and clear direction, not political turmoil.
The Social Democrats appear to have made this decision with remarkable unanimity. As Sinkevičius himself noted, 116 council members voted in favour of expelling the Nemuno Aušra from the coalition, with only one Social Democrat opposing it and three abstaining.
However, according to political scientist Baltrukevičius, such an unexpected unity among party members should not be overblown or overemphasised.
“It’s just that Social Democrats generally have an internal culture where, most often, if politicians see that they are in the minority and know that the decision isn’t an easy one for the party, they suppress their personal ambitions, don’t show their dissatisfaction, and simply—perhaps even through gritted teeth— but vote in such a way that the results we see in the public sphere would show that the party is absolutely united and that this does not cause any problems,” commented the VPAI associate analyst.
So, seeing that a majority of party members support Sinkevičius’ proposal, did the supporters of a coalition with Nemuno Aušra give in and suppress their desire to remain with the Nemuno Aušra?
“I think so, and on the other hand — they also didn’t want Sinkevičius, who took on the responsibility of leading the party during a difficult period, to find himself in a situation where he comes to the party’s elite group with his own perspective on where such an important decision should be made, and the party simply ignores him.
Because in such a situation, it is hard to say how Sinkevičius would have acted if the party had essentially ignored his views,” the political scientist noted.
The LSDP leader does not deny that he could become prime minister—he says he will not shirk responsibility and, if necessary, will make decisions. In Baltrukevičius’ view, Sinkevičius would most likely want to work in the government, but it is doubtful that the post of prime minister is truly his most desired position.
“It would have been very difficult for him if circumstances had unfolded in such a way that he had already been announced as prime minister, because in recent weeks, we’ve actually heard more denial or scepticism from him whenever the prime minister’s post was discussed.
From what I’ve heard, it’s not really the case that he’s pushing very hard to take the prime minister’s post right now — he understands that negotiations with the Democrats might not be so straightforward, and that Virginijus Sinkevičius very openly criticised Inga Ruginienė just last week. Circumstances might unfold in such a way that Sinkevičius is left with no other option.
I think what he really wants is to be part of the executive branch, most likely taking a ministerial post—perhaps, for example, in the Ministry of the Interior following the Registry Centre scandal, where it would be quite logical for a change to occur,” the interviewee mused.
It may be, Baltrukevičius continued, that both the Democrats will put very strong pressure on Sinkevičius to take responsibility, and a portion of the Social Democrats, who are dissatisfied with how Ruginienė is performing, will encourage him to take this seat.
“And it may simply turn out in the end that the side that prevails will force Sinkevičius to take on the responsibility,” predicted Baltrukevičius.
As Lrytas has already reported, changes will be inevitable within the cabinet itself. Not only is Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys in the hot seat, but also Finance Minister Kristupas Vaitiekūnas and Interior Minister Vladislav Kondratovič. Culture Minister Vaida Aleknavičienė should also feel uneasy. The question of whether Edvinas Grikšas, the Minister of Economy and Innovation delegated by the Peasants’ Party, would be able to pass the president’s scrutiny once again following the Registry Centre scandal remains open.
According to Baltrukevičius, it is unlikely that the Social Democrats will want sweeping changes, but there may certainly be some reshuffling.
“Some things will fall into place naturally; the three ministries that would be easiest for the Social Democrats to hand over may not necessarily seem the most acceptable to the Democrats, and simply because of that, one or another change may occur—because a new partner is coming in with their own wishes and demands.
So, I don’t think it’s possible to single out certain Social Democratic ministers right now—perhaps except the Minister of the Interior—as being in the high-risk zone.
As for Kęstutis Budrys, the fundamental criterion remains that, according to our Constitution, the president dismisses ministers, and I doubt the Social Democrats would enter into a major conflict with Nausėda over Budrys,” the political scientist noted.
The Democrats themselves, according to Baltrukevičius, also understand that if they speak too ambitiously and demand too much—no matter how much the Social Democrats might not want it—there is a chance that the negotiations will collapse entirely.
“On the other hand, they understand that the Social Democrats don’t really have any alternatives; they’ve now backed themselves into a corner, and so they themselves are very interested in reaching an agreement with the Democrats. So, the Social Democrats are essentially in a position of weakness. At the same time, the Democrats—though they can’t exactly claim to be in a position of power after everything that happened with Saulius Skvernelis—still have a negotiating position that isn’t all that bad.
Here, it’s their choice—whether to simply meekly accept everything the Social Democrats offer and be happy with that opportunity, or to try a little to stake their own claims by putting pressure on the Social Democrats,” explained the political expert.
Žemaitaitis won’t let them relax now either
It’s also interesting to see how Nemuno Aušra leader Žemaitaitis, now pushed into the opposition, will act. Some political scientists have previously noted that this politician has a unique ability to be in both the ruling coalition and the opposition simultaneously. Will he now become an even bigger thorn in the side of the Social Democrats?
“I think that to some extent his internal restraints existed, and to some extent they worked—now, essentially, he will be able to say and do anything practically without giving a second thought to what the Social Democrats might say.
Maybe he didn’t think too much about it before either, but perhaps in some cases he was somewhat reassured by the fact that, whatever the case, the coalition was still functioning. Žemaitaitis promised he’d mow the lawn calmly—he probably did just that, because it was essentially a win-win situation.
They will now be able to craft a narrative perfectly about how Nemuno Aušra is striving to work for Lithuania, how the Social Democrats prevented them from doing so, and ultimately kicked them out of the coalition.
If that hadn’t happened, they would have hung on a bit longer and most likely left the coalition themselves next year, as the Seimas elections approach; it just played out a little differently,” explained Baltrukevičius.
According to Sinkevičius, two weeks have been allocated for negotiations with the Democrats at this time.
“The Council demanded that the results of the negotiations be presented in two weeks. And let’s say the conclusions from the negotiations, so we don’t drag things out. It’s clear that we still have the spring session; the political season isn’t over. (…) Right now, this uncertainty may temporarily disrupt the Seimas’ work.
My goal is to hold talks as soon as possible, and I would like to see tangible results by the end of next week,” the LSDP chairman assured.
Could the position of Seimas speaker also change? The LSDP leader explained that this post should, in any case, remain in the hands of the Social Democrats.
“Could the nameplate on the door change? I doubt it. There is certainly no such intention here,” he said.
Sinkevičius noted that he had not informed Žemaitaitis separately about the party’s decisions. He confirmed that he had discussed coalition changes with Peasant Party leader Aurelijus Veryga and, about a week ago, with President Gitanas Nausėda.
The Social Democratic leader stated that he would call the Democratic Party leader, Sinkevičius, as early as Saturday.
“I will propose that they respond as soon as possible. Apparently, there are procedures, branch evaluations, their councils, and boards, and I want to believe that by the middle of the week we will already be sitting down at the negotiating table,” Sinkevičius hoped.
When asked what the final straw was that forced him to seriously consider changes to the coalition, Sinkevičius emphasised that the Social Democrats had been patient for a long time, trying to find compromises and reach consensus.
“But there were certainly votes that were important for the country, on which we did not receive support from the Nemuno Aušra faction. There was a certain wake-up call that it is not right for our partners to conclude. It does not seem that those conclusions are being drawn,” said the LSDP leader, while also thanking the Nemuno Aušra members for their help in passing some important decisions.
Be the first to comment