On the eve of the crucial decision – VP Andriukaitis’ message regarding the coalition and a prediction of a possible split

Vytenis Povilas Andriukaitis, EU Commissioner for Health and Food Safety
AFP/Scanpix

It is obvious to me that this cannot continue – the problem of Remigijus Žemaitaitis needs to be solved,” said Vytenis Povilas Andriukaitis, Honorary Chairman of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP), MEP. According to the long-time politician, working with Nemunas Aušra’s leader does not add any value and only sinks the coalition deeper, Agnė Liubertaitė states in lrytas.lt article.

“He’s singing his arias in the wrong opera. But he’s doing it deliberately because he has his eye on next year’s election cycle. He’s sacrificing the coalition’s work, sacrificing the state’s interests, and sacrificing strategic goals for his own purely selfish ends,” an influential Social Democrat told the Lrytas website.

Andriukaitis does not know what the party council will decide on Saturday regarding the coalition’s future. Still, he stated that he is convinced that opinions among his colleagues are indeed diverging, and quite drastically, even if Seimas Speaker Juozas Olekas or other prominent Social Democrats in the Seimas are not plotting any major intrigues.

That said, the LSDP’s honorary chairman also shared his own vision of what the ruling coalition might look like. For example, he suggested that only Žemaitaitis could be excluded, since, in his view, there are certainly rational politicians among Nemuno Aušra. He did not even rule out the possibility that this faction might eventually split off.

“I even know a few people—at least two or three—who can’t stand what he’s doing. But they keep quiet and say nothing. They are absolutely rational, reliable people, completely predictable, and fully understand the gravity of the situation because one person is creating it. I don’t think they really want to see their opportunities to continue working rationally,” explained Andriukaitis, adding that there are sensible politicians both in the Mixed Group of Seimas Members and within the Democratic camp itself.

“If I were in the Seimas right now, I would try, while preserving the continuity of the government’s work and its program, to preserve and form a rational coalition, because we need to understand what a complex situation we are in,” said the MEP.

He rejects one scenario outright

When asked if he already knows what he will say to his colleagues at the party council meeting on Saturday, Andriukaitis assured that he will listen more to others rather than speak himself, and that he observes political processes more from a distance.

“But it is clear that the key question remains: how should we ultimately assess the entire experience of working together in the coalition and dealing with Žemaitaitis? Because the issue of Žemaitaitis is one of the most pressing problems, which can no longer be avoided in any way,” stated the LSDP’s honorary chairman.

Party leader Mindaugas Sinkevičius said he did not know which three scenarios he would propose to party members.

“First of all, I really haven’t had any opportunity to speak with Sinkevičius and other colleagues, because I only returned late yesterday (Wednesday, – author’s note). I can’t say what the scenarios are, and I’m not interested in them because there are likely very few; the key issue is whether we no longer see the problem with Žemaitaitis.

In one way or another, Žemaitaitis is doing everything he can to prevent joint coalition work. He is simply doing everything he can to make the coalition as vulnerable to attack as possible. It is impossible to continue working this way; it is time to make a decision,” urged Andriukaitis.

The politician recalled that he had always been very sceptical of the Nemuno Aušra leader—even after the crisis involving former Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas, he reportedly suggested ways to avoid Žemaitaitis’s company.

According to Andriukaitis, while Saulius Skvernelis was still in the coalition, they would set the entire media agenda together with the chairman of the Nemuno Aušra party, even as they clashed. Now, however, Žemaitaitis is clashing with the Social Democrats.

“This raises the question of how long this can continue. I see no added value in continuing to work with him. Either he must step down himself, or we must decide how to proceed,” he reiterated.

Although Sinkevičius had previously mentioned three possible scenarios for working in a coalition, the politician emphasised that one of them can be ruled out immediately. That is a minority government.

“A minority government is not a viable option. It is definitely not a viable option. Especially under such difficult conditions, and in this case, being dependent on the conservatives… This is absolutely not the same situation as it was under Gediminas Kirkilas—not at all. This option is not even worth considering,” emphasised Andriukaitis.

Does that leave only the Democrats? Not necessarily, the Social Democrat suggests.

“We probably agree that we know the composition of the Seimas well. The question now is whether it is actually possible, for example, to retain some of the rational people from Nemuno Aušra and invite some of the rational people from the Democrats, as well as those who haven’t joined any group (the Mixed Group – author’s note).

This raises the question of whether it is possible to strengthen and consolidate the Seimas majority so that rational work can continue. “After all, the government’s program won’t change in practice; the core tasks cannot change, since this is strategic planning. So how can we ensure a stable majority from the current number of rational Seimas members?” the MEP pondered.

When asked whether this means that some representatives of Nemuno Aušra could remain in the coalition, Andriukaitis said he did not doubt that there are indeed those within the coalition who view Žemaitaitis critically.

“I even know a few of them—at least two or three people—who can’t stand what he’s doing. But they keep quiet and say nothing. They are absolutely rational, reliable people, completely predictable, and fully understand the gravity of the situation, because one person creates that gravity.

So, I don’t think they really want to see their opportunities to continue working rationally,” explained the LSDP’s honorary chairman.

He doesn’t even rule out the possibility of a split within the ranks of Nemuno Aušra.

“And as for the rest, of course, I can’t say that everyone in the Democrats’ ranks is like that—just look at how much they’ve been talking about us,” Andriukaitis reflected.

“So, if I were in the Seimas right now, I would indeed try to preserve the continuity of the government’s work and its program, and to form a rational coalition, because we need to understand what a complex situation we’re in,” the politician told Lrytas.

“He’s singing his arias in the wrong opera”

However, some Social Democrats in the Seimas are giving the impression that everything regarding the coalition has already been decided. Lrytas spoke with Social Democratic Party board members Orinta Leiputė and Indrė Kižienė, who said openly that the ruling majority is working effectively, fulfilling its campaign promises and the government’s program, so there is no need to dismantle the coalition and rebuild it. Such sentiments, the politicians suggest, also prevail within the LSDP branches.

Seimas Speaker Juozas Olekas also reiterates that he sees no reason to change the ruling coalition. Does this mean that the majority of the Social Democrats do not want changes and that there will be little to discuss on Saturday? Or are such comments a clear attempt to pressure Sinkevičius into not even initiating any changes?

“I don’t know—I can’t say anything; all I know is that at least a week ago, opinions regarding Žemaitaitis were very radical and very critical. I know there is no unified opinion within the faction that things should continue this way.

It is obvious to me that there will be a discussion. I understand that the faction leader and the speaker of the Seimas have a certain strategy for their statements; they fully understand that they are under scrutiny and weigh their words carefully, but the moods are very different, very varied,” explained Andriukaitis.

However, he continued to insist that the issue regarding Žemaitaitis must be resolved in any case.

“He needs to change radically and understand that rational work isn’t done this way; moreover, he must realise that this involves state-level work, not a show or public relations. He’s singing his arias in the wrong opera. But he’s doing it deliberately because he has his eye on next year’s election cycle.

He’s sacrificing the coalition’s work, sacrificing the state’s interests, sacrificing strategic goals for his own utterly selfish ends,” the Social Democrat assessed.

When asked why, in his opinion, some Social Democrats are so reluctant to see changes in the coalition, Andriukaitis considered that for many, the question “what comes next” inevitably arises.

“When taking steps, we must answer the question: what comes next? What about the next day? This question is a challenge for me as well. In my view, those currently working in the Seimas—my colleagues—must assess whether they can secure a majority. Essentially, the question is fundamental: is it possible to secure a majority by eliminating Žemaitaitis alone?

I understand that those who work in the Seimas every day—after all, they talk and discuss—experience particularly intense informal communication there. So, I understand perfectly well that they all have to answer the question for themselves: what comes next?

On Saturday, I will listen and watch, because it is clear to me that things cannot continue this way—the Žemaitaitis issue must be resolved. If eliminating him alone would preserve the coalition’s composition, that would be the best option. “Moving forward by eliminating him,” said the long-time Social Democrat.

True, Andriukaitis continued, Žemaitaitis’s legal proceedings will eventually have to end one way or another. However, regardless of law enforcement’s decisions, he asserted that in any case, either the Nemuno Aušra leader must be dismissed or he must radically change his behaviour.

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