Gintautas Paluckas’ resignation was only a matter of time, according to political scientist Liutauras Gudžinskas, who previously served as deputy Chairman of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) before leaving the party due to its coalition with Nemuno Aušra (Dawn of Nemunas), Agnė Liubertaitė states in lrytas.
According to him, although some of his colleagues still tried to throw a lifeline to the sinking Paluckas, it became impossible to ignore all the circumstances and the processes taking place right under the prime minister’s nose.
“Paluckas was not born yesterday; he should have understood that these rumblings cannot be silenced with one or another declarative statement from one of the governing bodies,” Gudžinskas told the Lrytas portal on Thursday.
He also assessed several names circulating in the public sphere that could soon become Paluckas’ successor – the former LSDP vice chairman has his guesses as to who has the best chances and which option would pose the most significant risk to the party.
According to Gudžinskas, the formation of a new coalition will also be complicated – he did not rule out the possibility that the Social Democrats would even try to take revenge on the outgoing Seimas leader Saulius Skvernelis.
The political scientist also assessed Paluckas’ political future and revealed whether he would consider returning to the Social Democrats if Nemuno Aušra were to leave the coalition.
Who will become the new prime minister?
When asked if he expected Paluckas to step down eventually, Gudžinskas reiterated his earlier statement that the outcome of this story was clear – it was only a matter of time before it happened.
“It was possible to assume that Paluckas and the Social Democrats supporting him, as well as Nausėda, would wait for the ratings, see how the public reacts to the latest scandals, but it seems that the decision was made earlier.
One can only assume that this was influenced by both the searches that had begun and the deteriorating situation within the party – that is, constant mistrust from various sides, from multiple branches, as well as from various influential Social Democrats in the Seimas – apparently, there may also be a specific position within the family that things cannot continue like this,” the former LSDP deputy-Chairman told the Lrytas portal.
However, comments made last week after the Social Democratic Party’s praesidium meeting sent a message that party members trust Paluckas. Was the support only feigned?
Gudžinskas recalled anonymous party members who described the meeting as a kind of “show of force.”
According to the political scientist, although Paluckas was thrown a lifeline, it is clear that this did nothing to eliminate the resistance or opposition to the prime minister within the party.
The fact that several party branches strongly urged Paluckas to resign and Juozas Olekas had already rushed to the Presidency should have been a clear signal that his allies were stirring.
“Paluckas was not born yesterday; he should have understood that you cannot silence such unrest with one or two declarative statements from one of the governing bodies,” Gudžinskas said.
Three possible names are now being discussed in the public sphere as potential replacements for Paluckas: Olekas, Mindaugas Sinkevičius, and Inga Ruginienė. According to the former Social Democrat, although everyone is shying away from responsibility for now, the most realistic option would be Sinkevičius.
“Considering that he is now the party leader, albeit temporarily, he certainly has every opportunity to steer the entire process so that, in the end, the decisions will be such that he will become both the party leader and the head of the government.
In second place, I would single out Olekas precisely because of his many years of experience and the fact that he very clearly wants to be that leader. Perhaps his only drawback is that not all of the most influential Social Democrats support his desire,” said Gudžinskas.
The candidacy of Social Security and Labour Minister Irena Ruginienė is interesting, but the least likely.
“In my opinion, looking at the long tradition of the Social Democrats, people who have only been party members for six months, a short period, should probably wait a little longer. I think that even if this candidate were nominated, a significant number of Social Democrats would consider it quite risky,” the political scientist said.
However, the former LSDP deputy-chairman added that the former party leader, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, who was supposed to take the prime minister’s seat after the Seimas elections, will also have a significant influence on the search for a new head of government.
“She will be actively involved in this process. She may never comment publicly, but she has great authority within the party, and it is thanks to her that the party won the most significant number of seats in its history, so her word will certainly be heeded,” Gudžinskas said with no doubt.
Will they take revenge on Skvernelis?
And what might the new coalition look like? According to our interlocutor, the process of forming it will be complicated. Essentially, there are several possible scenarios, but turbulence is likely to be avoided.
“One scenario would be to maintain the same formula of three parties. Yes, there is always the question mark over Nemuno Aušra, and there is also a question mark over Skvernelis, because a significant number of Social Democrats are not happy with Skvernelis’ role – to pre-empt them.
But I would imagine that there will still be a desire not to make any radical changes. The situation is already complicated, and I think it would be pretty difficult to shake things up again.
I imagine that, one way or another, the Social Democrats will have to swallow their resentment towards Skvernelis and agree to cooperate. And then the question is whether it will be Nemuno Aušra or perhaps the Peasants’ Party – they are not ruling out the possibility either,” said Gudžinskas.
There is also the possibility that the Social Democrats will seek revenge against Skvernelis and attempt to form a coalition with Nemuno Aušra, as well as the Peasants, or include parliamentarians from the Mixed Group.
When Paluckas decided to leave his position in the Government, there was immediate speculation about his future in politics. However, this will depend solely on his personal choices, according to the former deputy chairman of the LSDP.
Gudžinskas claims that even after these scandals, the doors of politics are certainly not closed to Paluckas.
“I think he has been badly hurt, he probably feels betrayed, he is very burned out, and in this case, I think he will take a long time to consider whether he wants to stay in politics or go into business. There will now be a period when he can step back.
He may remain a member of the Seimas, although we can recall the examples of Landsbergis and Karbauskis. But it is certainly not the case that all these stories have closed the door on Paluckas, that he is now completely buried and will never find his place in politics again.
That would be an overly dramatic and categorical prediction for the future. He has a chance to redeem himself, but it will take time,” predicted the political scientist.
Gudžinskas left the Social Democrats precisely when it was decided to invite Žemaitaitis Nemuno Aušra into the coalition. When asked if he would return to the party if, for example, Nemuno Aušra were no longer in the alliance, he said that he was not thinking about it too much at the moment, but would consider it if invited.
“I don’t have any such thoughts at the moment. I enjoy my academic freedom and the freedom to express my views openly. I want my work at the university, and that’s all.
Of course, if there were any invitations or offers to return and help, I would consider it. Still, in this case, I am happy with my status as a citizen of the country, a political scientist, and a university lecturer,” he told the Lrytas portal.
We remind you that on Thursday, Prime Minister Paluckas announced his resignation as prime minister and leader of the Social Democrats. He first informed President Nausėda of his decision.
“I gave him time to think it over first as a person, to assess all the circumstances, and I believe he made the only right decision – he took advantage of this opportunity. And I welcome that decision, I told him so myself,” said the head of state.
Paluckas promised to decide on the premiership or answer all the questions raised to him within two weeks. This period was suggested to him by the president himself. The prime minister said he would provide answers after assessing the situation during a two-week vacation.
Over the past couple of months, new journalistic investigations into Paluckas past, business connections, and suspicious transactions have been emerging in the public sphere.
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