In a comment published on DELFI, Girnius argues that the Baltic armies are small and specialised, service sector dominates the economies, therefore the Kremlin would not need a new financial burden with little potential gain that aggression in the Baltics would represent.
Second, according to Girnius, if Russia did not put effort into carving out a land access to the Crimean peninsula it recently annexed from Ukraine, there is even less motivation to make one for safer and less vulnerable Kaliningrad. Lithuania can also feel safe because Russia will be stuck in Syria for a long time.
Third, NATO’s military strength is far greater than that of the Russian army and the alliance would react to any attacks against Lithuania, Girnius argues. Therefore it would be irrational for Russia to seek confrontation which it could only win by playing the nuclear card.
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