“Lithuania, in the event of an attack, would not hold out for long” – similar assessments have repeatedly circulated in the public sphere, especially after Russia launched a large-scale war against Ukraine, was stated on Žinių Radijas programme Tai-Mitas. What is the reality?
The Žinių Radijas programme Tai – Mitas invited the commander of the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union, Colonel Linas Idzelis, to explain his remarks; he had recently stated on an LRT programme that Vilnius could hold out for 10 years, or perhaps even forever.
When Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, discussions arose in Lithuania about how long the country could hold out. The Russians expected Ukraine to fall within three days, but the war has now been going on for five years, and Ukraine is defending itself admirably. Where, then, do these suggestions come from that Lithuania would not last even a week?
“All these myths stem from Russia’s long-standing threats and information operations. A couple of years ago, I met an acquaintance at a fair who said: ‘What chance do we have of holding out here? We’re done for. Two missiles – and Lithuania is gone.’ We were actually standing right by the Akropolis shopping centre in Vilnius. I said, ‘Look, if a single missile hits the Akropolis, it’ll knock off a corner of the building. If there are people there at the time, there’ll be a few fatalities and a few injuries. The injured will be taken to hospital by ambulances.’ That’s the extent of the damage.
Cannot imagine the true impact of bombs
People don’t realise the scale of the damage. The effect of a Shahed drone is this: it burns down a flat after flying through a window on the top floor; when it crashes, it sets a car alight, and the debris scorches the surrounding flats.
If a larger missile hits a five-storey or nine-storey building, it can demolish a corner or a stairwell, or bring the whole building down. “These are the kinds of effects,” said Idzelis.
He recalled the account of Lithuanians who had fought in Kharkiv – they were defending themselves from high ground and could see from there how the enemy was pounding the city. But upon arriving at the scene, the view was far from apocalyptic: “Here and there a house is charred, there it has been rebuilt, all the monuments are cordoned off. People are talking about, working, schools are open; when they hear the siren, they head for the shelter.”
Demolishing building after building
According to Idzelis, no bomb can destroy an entire city in an instant; even the most terrifying bombs currently being developed can only demolish something or set it alight.
“Of course, if an atomic bomb were to fall, we wouldn’t know what the effect would be, as we’ve never seen it, but such things don’t even happen in Ukraine,” said the commander of the Riflemen’s Union.
He has witnessed the impact of glide bombs.
“The most terrifying thing we’ve seen is when they fly 50 km up to the front line and drop glide bombs. I saw a drone feed showing one hitting a nine-storey building and another a five-storey one. They fell 2 kilometres and 500 metres away from us.
When I was in Zaporizhzhia, four such glide bombs were dropped. One slightly damaged a bridge, another set a farmer’s fields alight, whilst the third and fourth struck a car park, setting quite a few cars on fire,” said Idzelis.
Izdelis states that it’s not the case that a few bombs hit and the whole town is wiped out. Resistance lasts a long time because the enemy destroys one building after another. “It’s now the fifth year of the war; a town the size of Utena has been holding out for two or three years, only to be recaptured again,” he gave as an example.
What happens when a bomb hit
Idzelis emphasised that when thinking about resistance, it is important not to forget about underground utilities:
“You need to know that if you’re hiding somewhere in a cellar, strikes are aimed at the centre of the building. If you’re on one side, you need to dig an emergency exit, because in the worst case the building could collapse and emergency services won’t be able to reach you.
Because, more often than not, one attack follows another. Guided bombs are launched; they land somewhere, cause damage, people are injured, ambulances, the fire brigade and the police arrive, they start sorting everything out, and then a missile suddenly strikes that very spot. Then – even more casualties.
Under the current protocol, nobody goes there for 20 minutes. Because everyone starts filming and taking photographs; the information ends up on social media; and the enemy, observing everything perfectly well, can assess the situation and launch another salvo,” explained the commander of the Riflemen’s Union.
Resistance can last a very long time
The message Idzelis is sending is this: no weaponry can reduce an entire city to ashes with a single artillery salvo, leaving nothing to rebuild.
“It is possible to hold out for a very long time. If you have set up defensive positions, and they are fortified and underground, you can fight for a very long time.
An experiment was carried out in Ukraine. A detachment of 30 soldiers had entrenched themselves in an underground bunker. Artillery pounded that location round the clock and failed to destroy the unit. No weapon can capture and wipe out everyone.
All these myths come from Russian propaganda websites. The worst thing is that we republish them without checking them. That’s how we end up with the narrative that, if anything happens, Vilnius is defenceless. Every inch is defended,” said Idzelis.
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